Peer-reviewed risk assessment data produced by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology suggests that many of those big events may become coronavirus super-spreaders. Drawing on public data sets, the Covid-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool produces daily county-level estimates of the odds of encountering at least one coronavirus-positive person at a gathering of 10 or more people.
At the county level nationwide, the average estimated risk of running into a coronavirus-positive person at a 10-person gathering is just a hair under 40 percent. That’s a pretty high number — if you take five of next week’s Thanksgiving gatherings, you can expect that a coronavirus-positive person will be at two of them.
READ FULL ARTICLE: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/11/18/map-covid-risk-thanksgiving/
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When I use the Planning Tool link, and select 10-pp @ 10 ascertainment bias, I get a completely different map. The data source, The Atlantic, deprecates the use of their data by other display creators.
Also, this is just a game, it has nothing to do with the relationship of the attendees whose recent history is available to evaluate. I have no dog in this fight.