||| FROM BRENDAN COWAN, DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT |||
Four new positive COVID test results have been reported for San Juan County. Total case count for the islands is now 47.
Three of these cases are on San Juan Island, and one is on Orcas. Though investigations are ongoing, early results suggest that that two of the San Juan cases are household contacts of each other.
Here’s a reality check for all of us:
- Cases are up 47% in Washington over the last week.
- San Juan County has gone from zero new cases in two months to 14 new cases in just over two weeks.
- Healthcare systems across the United States are increasingly overwhelmed and their capacity to effectively support our medical needs is diminishing.
- San Juan County is now at the point where active community transmission in the islands is likely. It is safe to assume that there are now asymptomatic individuals carrying the illness in our community.
Our decisions and our behavior are the very best tools we have to minimize further spread. We know that shrinking our bubbles, covering our faces, and staying close to home work and work well.
HIGHER risk activities include:
- Unmasked, prolonged, and close-contact indoor activities with people from outside our immediate household. Risk increases with more people, smaller spaces, higher activity, and hourly or daily variation in who is using the space.
- Traveling by air, or any other means that involves close contact with individuals from outside of our household.
LOWER (but not zero) risk activities include:
- Anything outdoors other than very close and extended unmasked contact.
- Masked short-duration shopping or errand running, either on island or off.
- Masked, spaced out, and safety conscious indoor activities with consistent groups of individuals.
This is the third and most severe surge of cases. Without significant changes in our collective behavior it will continue to worsen.
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It was bound to happen, as much as we like to believe we’re in a little island bubble. Luck has never been an intelligent replacement for strategy….
Thank you for publishing this important information!!
When does the “essential travel” take effect for the Islands…? We see Oregon, California, and Texas license plates constantly…why? Are all these folks just want a vacation that the rest of us cannot take? I am sorry, I don’t understand….
If vacation rentals were causing Covid-19 cases in SJC wouldn’t you have expected a big rash of cases during the summer? And yet that didn’t happen. The islands have maintained a VERY low number of cases by population despite out of state license plates and the ones that have appeared are said to be happening at private gatherings, according to health officials who know the contact tracing results. Understandably, it is not appropriate to share people’s private information but we all (okay, at least SOME) of us still want to be as safe as possible and it would be helpful to know where the weak link(s) are located, so that we can take precautions.
Knowing that “it was bound to happen…”, no, let’s quit kidding ourselves. Knowing of the high potential of, and indeed, the likely-hood of the pandemic spreading throughout our communities, and that we were most likely in for a rough winter has been the moniker… no, it has been the prediction of both our elected officials, and SJC’s health care team for months now. As a result of their preparation for an event SJC is now in excellent shape for a worst-case scenario… aren’t we? I mean, that’s what we’ve been told.
Viewing evidence from communities that have gone thru this before us allows us to posit with some certainty that waiting until the pandemic is out of control will eventually lead to more people getting infected, and more stringent, and lengthier shutdown measures.
The reality is that when it comes to this pandemic– things are only good until they aren’t.
With what we know now, (that the virus is now being spread by community transmission, 98-99% is the survival rate, not the recovery rate), and with what we don’t know, (think of mild and asymptomatic carriers), taking precautions means taking preemptive action with the intention of thwarting the spread of what we know is amongst us.
“It should feel hard to make these decisions.
By the time it’s easy, it’s too late.”
— Unknown
Though mitigation fatigue continues to take it’s toll we all knew that this would, if we acted wisely, take a couple of years, (in this we see the light… we have a timeline for success). We must grasp, and not lose track of the fact that the potential end result of the COVID-19 viral spread certainly outweighs any risks imposed by implementing safety measures… I mean, the potential negative health impacts of doing less are immeasurable. As a result holiday social gatherings, and taking non-essential trips to the mainland, or allowing more visitors to come out to the islands at this time is neither a logical, a practical, nor a health-first approach in combatting the virus.
This morning’s (Tuesday morning), County Council meeting should be interesting.
“their preparation for an event SJC is now in excellent shape for a worst-case scenario” Well that sure puts my mind at ease. To expect the same elected officials and health care team who were unable or unwilling to lay the necessary groundwork to prevent a worst-case scenario are somehow better equipped or more able to resolve a worst-case scenario seems…. optimistic.
I would just add, the fact that this outcome was so predictable means it was preventable.
This is exactly why speed limits aren’t just suggestions or “big asks”….