New analysis reveals major increase in vessel traffic through the Salish Sea

||| FROM LOVEL PRATT for FRIENDS OF THE SAN JUANS |||

A new analysis by Friends of the San Juans shows that ocean-going vessel traffic in the Salish Sea is projected to increase by nearly 2,000 additional shipping transits annually, including a dramatic increase in tanker traffic going to and from Canada that could more than quadruple historic tanker traffic levels.

The 2026 Salish Sea Vessel Traffic Projections identifies 1,980 additional annual vessel transits associated with proposed, permitted, under-construction, and recently completed projects in Washington State, Oregon, and British Columbia. If all projects move forward, annual ocean-going vessel traffic in the Salish Sea would increase from 11,944 transits in 2025 to 13,924 transits, a 16.6% increase.

Key Findings

• 1,980 additional ocean-going vessel transits per year projected throughout the Salish Sea
• 11,944 ocean-going vessel transits in 2025 and 13,924 projected for 2026 and beyond, reflecting a 16.6% increase in annual vessel traffic
• Four of the twelve projects identified account for more than one-third of the projected increase in Salish Sea vessel traffic.

Most concerning is the recent and projected increase in tanker traffic to Canadian ports, driven largely by Canada’s increase in fossil fuel exports. From 2007 to 2023, annual tanker traffic to and from Salish Sea ports in Canada remained relatively stable, averaging 400 voyages per year. According to the Department of Ecology’s Vessel Entries and Transits Reports for Washington Waters, tanker traffic surpassed 700 transits in 2024 and exceeded 1,000 transits in 2025. Tanker traffic more than tripled from 346 transits in 2023 to 1,056 transits 2025, dramatically increasing the risk of accidents and major oil spills. Canadian projects, including the proposed one-million-barrel-per-day pipeline and export terminal, just north of the U.S.-Canada border at Roberts Bank, could more than quadruple historic tanker traffic levels.

Proposed Canadian projects could more than quadruple historic tanker traffic levels.

The Salish Sea is one of the world’s largest and most biodiverse inland seas, providing habitat for a wide variety of marine species and ecosystems. The cumulative impacts of the projects identified in this report will be experienced collectively in the Salish Sea’s interconnected ecosystem.

If all currently proposed and permitted projects proceed, the addition of nearly 2,000 annual vessel transits would significantly increase cumulative impacts throughout the Salish Sea. More vessel traffic would increase congestion in already challenging navigation corridors, elevate the risk of oil and hazardous cargo spills, and generate additional greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and toxic scrubber discharges that contaminate marine food webs. Increased shipping would also place greater pressure on Tribes’ and First Nations’ cultural and treaty-protected resources and further threaten the recovery of Southern Resident killer whales through increased underwater noise, disruption of foraging behavior, and a higher risk of vessel strikes.

The economic stakes are substantial. According to an Earth Economics 2022 report, the Salish Sea provides an estimated $91 billion to $153 billion annually in ecosystem services, including fisheries, tourism, recreation, carbon storage and climate regulation, water filtration, flood protection, and cultural and Indigenous values.

Despite the growth of vessel traffic, the cumulative impacts from projects throughout the Salish Sea are not being comprehensively assessed or managed.

“The health of the Salish Sea ecosystem matters to Coastal communities and economies, critical habitats for endangered and at risk species, and Tribal and First Nations cultural and treaty-protected resources,” said Eva Schulte Executive Director with friends of the San Juans. “This projected increase in vessel traffic, particularly the tanker traffic, underscores the urgent need to address cumulative impacts before additional projects move forward.”

For more information, visit: https://sanjuans.org/our-work/the-salish-sea/ssvtp/ 

About Friends of the San Juans

Friends of the San Juans’ mission is to bring people and nature together to protect the San Juan Islands and the Salish Sea through education, science, policy, and law. In addition to the Salish Sea Vessel Traffic Projections, Friends engages in permitting processes to ensure that environmental reviews address project-related vessel traffic risks and impacts. Friends focuses on reducing shipping pollution, protecting Southern Residents, and increasing oil spill prevention and spill response preparedness. To learn more about our work, get involved, or sign up for action alerts, visit sanjuans.org.