||| from Michael Riordan |||

Just over three months ago, San Juan County entered Phase 2 of the governor’s Safe Start program during Memorial Day weekend, and we have so far experienced only 32 confirmed coronavirus cases in all — and no deaths — despite the summer surge of tourists and other off-island visitors. Given the frighteningly high transmissibility of this deadly virus, this is a minor miracle. We have dodged a very big bullet.

When you consider that about a thousand visitors a day came to Orcas Island, and state Department of Health statistics say that something like 0.1 to 0.2 percent of western WA residents (where the bulk of visitors come from) were contagious in June, between 100 and 200 infectious visitors must have been mingling among us this summer. [1] Some have suggested that the actual infection rate was five to ten times higher, because about half of coronavirus carriers show no symptoms. If so, there could have been up to 2,000 infectious visitors here, which seems difficult to imagine but may be possible.

Whatever the actual numbers, they were unquestionably large, but the county experienced only an additional 17 cases between Memorial Day and Labor Day. [2] What have we been doing that we managed to keep the case number so low?

First and certainly foremost, we have been wearing masks religiously. And not only that, but so have the tourists and other visitors when they enter island businesses, thanks to a May 18 mandate from Health Officer Frank James and its endorsement by the County Council. [3] Since that time, I have witnessed or heard about only a few incidents where people have not worn a mask inside Eastsound businesses — for example, Island Market, Office Cupboard and Ray’s Pharmacy. This has surely made a huge difference. (Of course, people have to remove their masks when eating in restaurants, which are thus not included among “Eastsound businesses” above.)

To understand the impact of wearing masks, just compare the experiences of the United States, where a significant fraction of the population (mainly from a certain major political party) has refused to wear them and that of Japan, where almost everyone does. The nation Orcas Islanders like to call ‘Merica has so far suffered 583 coronavirus deaths per million citizens but Japan only 11. Case closed.

Part of the masking campaign was (and still is) the county’s vigorous promotion of this mandate, with a flashing sign greeting visitors as they come up Orcas Road from the ferry landing, signs at entrances to almost every business establishment, and free masks or hand sanitizer often available there. Another contribution is the subtle social pressure from islanders and business owners setting good examples for visitors.

Largely because of this mask-wearing, the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases remained low and was thus manageable by the limited county staff doing contact tracing, isolation of infected individuals, and quarantining of their close contacts. This process includes testing of asymptomatic essential workers, which began in April with special permission from the state Department of Health obtained by Dr. James. Thus individuals who were likely to be exposed to the virus due to their jobs — for example, emergency responders, public-health workers, restaurant employees and market check-out clerks — could get regular testing, courtesy of the County Public Health Department.

As an outcome of that extensive testing, San Juan County has among the lowest positivity ratings (the percentage of tests that come in positive) in the state: just under 1.0 percent as of September 3. This is an extremely good result. For comparison, the state as a whole has a positivity rating of 4.9 percent; Skagit County comes in at 3.2 percent and Whatcom County at 2.2 percent. Unlike in our neighboring counties, no major outbreaks have occurred here. And no deaths, either. That’s remarkable, given our aged population, a third of whom are over 65.

A final major reason for our success was islanders’ general avoidance of tourists this summer, especially by those over 60 — who are especially vulnerable to the virus. According to state statistics, 89 percent of the Covid-19 deaths have occurred among people 60 and older. The stark possibility of a painful, choking death at Island Hospital with a ventilator over one’s face and no loved ones at bedside has proved a compelling stimulus for avoiding potentially (or likely) infectious tourists and other visitors.

In an informal survey I did among friends and acquaintances, most of them over 60, the great majority acknowledged that they had avoided tourists as much as possible this summer. They came into Eastsound only when absolutely necessary and avoided it like the plague on weekends. They also avoided dining indoors in restaurants and instead did take-out. And they avoided hiking on their usual trails in Moran State Park, instead getting exercise indoors or on nearby roads.

These extreme forms of social distancing — or better, physical distancing — appear to have worked. But it seems that because of the coronavirus, Orcas Islanders have been ceding our public spaces to tourists this summer, for I recognize few islanders when I do go into town. We certainly need the dollars they spend here, but at what cost?

References and Links

  1. Michael Riordan, “Should the County Move to Phase 3? Orcas Issues, 29 June 2020.
    orcasissues.com/guest-opinion-should-the-county-move-to-phase-3/
  2. Brendan Cowan, “Hot Topic #30: COVID Trends and the Way Forward,”  theOrcasonian, 27 August 2020.
    theorcasonian.com/hot-topic-30-covid-case-trends-and-the-way-forward/
  3. San Juan County Local Health Officer Order Regarding COVID-19; Requiring the Wearing of Cloth Face Coverings, Order No. 2020-4, 18 May 2020.
    www.sanjuanco.com/DocumentCenter/View/20392/200515-Health-Officer-Order-4


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