||| from Michael Riordan |||
Just over three months ago, San Juan County entered Phase 2 of the governor’s Safe Start program during Memorial Day weekend, and we have so far experienced only 32 confirmed coronavirus cases in all — and no deaths — despite the summer surge of tourists and other off-island visitors. Given the frighteningly high transmissibility of this deadly virus, this is a minor miracle. We have dodged a very big bullet.
When you consider that about a thousand visitors a day came to Orcas Island, and state Department of Health statistics say that something like 0.1 to 0.2 percent of western WA residents (where the bulk of visitors come from) were contagious in June, between 100 and 200 infectious visitors must have been mingling among us this summer. [1] Some have suggested that the actual infection rate was five to ten times higher, because about half of coronavirus carriers show no symptoms. If so, there could have been up to 2,000 infectious visitors here, which seems difficult to imagine but may be possible.
Whatever the actual numbers, they were unquestionably large, but the county experienced only an additional 17 cases between Memorial Day and Labor Day. [2] What have we been doing that we managed to keep the case number so low?
First and certainly foremost, we have been wearing masks religiously. And not only that, but so have the tourists and other visitors when they enter island businesses, thanks to a May 18 mandate from Health Officer Frank James and its endorsement by the County Council. [3] Since that time, I have witnessed or heard about only a few incidents where people have not worn a mask inside Eastsound businesses — for example, Island Market, Office Cupboard and Ray’s Pharmacy. This has surely made a huge difference. (Of course, people have to remove their masks when eating in restaurants, which are thus not included among “Eastsound businesses” above.)
To understand the impact of wearing masks, just compare the experiences of the United States, where a significant fraction of the population (mainly from a certain major political party) has refused to wear them and that of Japan, where almost everyone does. The nation Orcas Islanders like to call ‘Merica has so far suffered 583 coronavirus deaths per million citizens but Japan only 11. Case closed.
Part of the masking campaign was (and still is) the county’s vigorous promotion of this mandate, with a flashing sign greeting visitors as they come up Orcas Road from the ferry landing, signs at entrances to almost every business establishment, and free masks or hand sanitizer often available there. Another contribution is the subtle social pressure from islanders and business owners setting good examples for visitors.
Largely because of this mask-wearing, the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases remained low and was thus manageable by the limited county staff doing contact tracing, isolation of infected individuals, and quarantining of their close contacts. This process includes testing of asymptomatic essential workers, which began in April with special permission from the state Department of Health obtained by Dr. James. Thus individuals who were likely to be exposed to the virus due to their jobs — for example, emergency responders, public-health workers, restaurant employees and market check-out clerks — could get regular testing, courtesy of the County Public Health Department.
As an outcome of that extensive testing, San Juan County has among the lowest positivity ratings (the percentage of tests that come in positive) in the state: just under 1.0 percent as of September 3. This is an extremely good result. For comparison, the state as a whole has a positivity rating of 4.9 percent; Skagit County comes in at 3.2 percent and Whatcom County at 2.2 percent. Unlike in our neighboring counties, no major outbreaks have occurred here. And no deaths, either. That’s remarkable, given our aged population, a third of whom are over 65.
A final major reason for our success was islanders’ general avoidance of tourists this summer, especially by those over 60 — who are especially vulnerable to the virus. According to state statistics, 89 percent of the Covid-19 deaths have occurred among people 60 and older. The stark possibility of a painful, choking death at Island Hospital with a ventilator over one’s face and no loved ones at bedside has proved a compelling stimulus for avoiding potentially (or likely) infectious tourists and other visitors.
In an informal survey I did among friends and acquaintances, most of them over 60, the great majority acknowledged that they had avoided tourists as much as possible this summer. They came into Eastsound only when absolutely necessary and avoided it like the plague on weekends. They also avoided dining indoors in restaurants and instead did take-out. And they avoided hiking on their usual trails in Moran State Park, instead getting exercise indoors or on nearby roads.
These extreme forms of social distancing — or better, physical distancing — appear to have worked. But it seems that because of the coronavirus, Orcas Islanders have been ceding our public spaces to tourists this summer, for I recognize few islanders when I do go into town. We certainly need the dollars they spend here, but at what cost?
References and Links
- Michael Riordan, “Should the County Move to Phase 3? Orcas Issues, 29 June 2020.
orcasissues.com/guest-opinion-should-the-county-move-to-phase-3/ - Brendan Cowan, “Hot Topic #30: COVID Trends and the Way Forward,” theOrcasonian, 27 August 2020.
theorcasonian.com/hot-topic-30-covid-case-trends-and-the-way-forward/ - San Juan County Local Health Officer Order Regarding COVID-19; Requiring the Wearing of Cloth Face Coverings, Order No. 2020-4, 18 May 2020.
www.sanjuanco.com/DocumentCenter/View/20392/200515-Health-Officer-Order-4
Is your point that the virus is exclusively transmitted by tourists? If so, then why not advocate for opening Orcas schools for our (local) children? Why not advocate for local shops to open more broadly since tourist season is over? If the tourists are gone, then the island should be safe now, correct?
Valiant effort, Michael Riordan, but wrong again (to steal your phrasing often used). First of all, 0.1% of 1000 is not 100. It is 1. That pokes a big hole in your argument. Not sure where you are getting your stats, but your math is wrong nonetheless. Second, it is overly simplistic to say masks are one of the main reasons the islands have had few cases. SJC went through many months of no masks and did just fine. How do you explain that? Tourism was very much present during all those months. Do you think, perhaps, it might be because the islands are in a rural community with no large group situations, generally speaking? And there is also the fact that SJC is a collection of ISLANDS. As in, surrounded by water. That helps, does it not? So you can’t compare SJC to counties on the mainland. We are special…. very special. Third, I do agree with you that islanders have done a good job social distancing and avoiding high risk situations. We did not need a government mandate for that, however, and we made that decision all on our own without being told by big gov what to do. Fourth, you reference Japan. How do you explain the massive spike in cases in Japan peaking August 1 with ~2K confirmed infections at the peak per day? Similar situation with Korea and BC, which all the “experts” hailed as “the way to do it right” yet when they too saw spikes the “experts” were all suddenly silent. As much as you may want to qualify that you have all the overly-simplistic answers to this complex phenomenon, you don’t. Nobody really does. This virus looks to do the same thing in most places regardless of government mandates. You can bash conservatives, but if you live in America, you are free and should be able to make the best decisions for yourself and your family without over-reaching mandates from big gov who don’t know or care about your particular situation. You know your situation best. Big gov does not. The mandates by our county and state have done little or nothing to make Washington’s epi curves look much different than other states or countries who didn’t have the mandates. What should have happened from the start is health officials make reasonable recommendations and then let people, as free Americans, decide what is best for their particular situation. The mandates have done immeasurable damage. And you should stop calling out and reporting island businesses on your covid spy rounds. Seriously. Dude.
Amen. Sharon. There have been a lot of “f-ups” from our council(“our” meaning SJC residents) but shame on you, Michael, for claiming you are mightier than others in this. Some can not wear masks due to health issues, my wife for one, who has not set foot in a business, restaurant, or any place of commerce due to rejection in >7 months! And why? Because of fear monger cancer spread by the masses. We miss our people at the places you blasphemed and I hoe this ends soon so we can visit them and enjoy their company. Shame on you for disgracing our local businesses and people…we are all trying to get through this together.
Excellent analysis as always, Michael. DL Roth: no, Michael’s point is not that Covid has been exclusively transmitted by tourists–if you checked the county stats you would realize this was not correct–but that hundreds of visitors this Summer were likely infectious, and did not infect most of us, because locals like my wife and I avoided town except for groceries, wore masks, and washed our hands frequently.
Sharon, you would benefit from reading Michael’s piece a bit more carefully. He did say that 1,000 people a day were visiting, but not that 100 infectious people a day were visiting; he said between 100 and 200 with infections visited this Summer. So try the math again, and substitute the number of visitors this summer, not in one day, and multiply that by 0.1%. Dr. Riordan has a Ph.D. in physics, and he knows his math.
Robert G’s post deserves no comment, other than the observation that no, Michael did not say anything that disgraced our local businesses and people”,and I can’t imagine how you arrived at that misconception.
Michael, thanks for your always acute and thoughtful commentaries on the pandemic in our beloved islands, and please keep them coming.
I, for one, am not convinced that we have a dodged a bullet. Who can say how long this will go on? Especially with so many exercising their “constitutional rights” to ignore reasonable precautions based on what they read on the internet. I very much appreciate the mask mandate for businesses and organizations. I wish the federal government had taken charge of data and recommendations at the outset and spared us the loss of almost 200,000 lives.
I also have not “set foot in a business, restaurant or any place of commerce for > 7 months” (except for Island Market at 7 am), because i am at extremely high risk of dying if I get this thing, and I keep reading stories of people who think their right to potentially poison the air I breathe outweighs my right to try to live (some estimate as much as 40% transmission is done by asymptomatic persons). Such as the lady who refused to wear a mask in a dentist’s waiting room because “pants don’t stop farts”, while disregarding that the government has mandated she has to wear clothes anyway. You know, stop the particulates. Kind of like, uh, masks.
Thanks, Robert, for saving me from the need to point out Sharon’s innumeracy. It’s hard to take seriously someone who cannot do simple arithmetic, so I won’t comment on her many other errors. Except to note that the mask mandate she maligns worked wonderfully here in the islands. Without it, we probably would have had hundreds of cases and who knows how many deaths. But instead we have one of the best records in the state, if not the nation, thanks in large part to Dr. James and the County Health Department. Our heroes.
And Robert G., you need to open your dictionary and check out the definition of “blaspheme.” Your comment is far closer to blasphemy than anything I wrote about local businesses. Don’t be foolish, especially in public like that.
Tickled by the scholarly citations. Need more time for content!
Michael Riordan, my math is not incorrect, and thank you for your insults. You are really good at them as has been evidence of your attacking businesses and people on this forum since the start of the pandemic. Seriously shameful. If you think 0.1% of 1000 is not 1, you should ask for a refund of your highly excellent schooling. Your piece is very poorly written. How do you come up with your “100-200” infected people coming up here this summer? Let me see, you took the JUNE 0.1 – 0.2 percent number, which is 1 to 2 per day assuming 1000 travelers per day, and then what, multiplied by all the days in June, July, and Aug? Wow, as if July and August infected % is exactly the same as June, and as if June ferry numbers are exactly the same as July and August. What a simpleton extraction. Go back the the drawing board on that one buddy along with most of the points in your piece. You are guessing. Very scientific! You will not respond to my other points because you won’t win those arguments. And you hail “your heroes” but let me guess you were not affected by their mandates. More simpleton and selfish reasoning. I am going to guess you might feel different if you owned a business and those mandates shut you down and you couldn’t feed your family. Just because your heroes’ lockdowns worked well for you doesn’t mean they worked well for everyone. Dude, really? How do you not see that? You clearly don’t care about your community.
It’s sad to watch how fast this discussion descended into ad hominem and belittling. Can we do better? I do find myself wondering what would happen if our governor issued an edict: “Stepping out in front of a fast moving vehicle except to save a life is prohibited,” how many people would do just that in a pointed, public exhibition of what freedom meant to them. There certainly are places and situations to raise the issue in the spirit Sharon raised it, but is this the place and situation?
I agree with Peg Manning. I’m in the bullseye, and those of us in that spot know it’s far from over. As we move indoors this fall, distances go down and the sharing of breathing space goes up. Be careful, people! And remember, in order for this community to work, ALL of us are needed, not just those with a particular point of view.
Process comments: I can’t help but wonder at what the motivations might be for vitriol in this thread. It seems to me Michael Riordan is making a simple, clear point, and doing so for our benefit. If you disagree, fine; it would be most effective to do so with kindness and care. Then, people will just respond to your main issues.
After all, hatred begets hatred unless we wake up to it.
Tis often said that when politics and health are combined that politics will rule the day. There’s a fine-line between economy and health, and when the governing politics of the day continues to be dictated by SJC’s cyclical, and imbalanced choice of economic engines (tourism) it becomes arguable whether the Best Available Science has actually been the navigator for our local response to this pandemic. Having listened to the council meetings and having heard the debates between county staff and the local health board experts leaves me in agreement with the author of this article, and leaves no doubt in my mind that, (in spite of the numbers of tourists we’ve had during the pandemic), that we’ve been very lucky here in SJC… so far.
COVID or not, in the past few years I’ve gotten to where I tend to stay out of town for the summer season… anyway. Peak tourism is over-tourism, and during the summers in the San Juans the word “local” tends to lose it’s luster. Orcas during the summers has little semblance to the community that I moved to years ago, and I find the crowds to be unbearable. Current SJC efforts via the Visitors Bureau is the mandate to expand tourism by promoting the buffer seasons (both before and after the peak season). Though this effort will be framed as, and some of us will see this as a hopeful solution to the overcrowding that we normally experience during the summer months… having seen this done in other communities before the reality is that it only leads to more.
Even during “normal” times most of us can agree on the dangers regarding an imbalanced economy, and like the crash of ’08 this pandemic has been another wake-up call… it’s been an opportunity to see the results of our chosen economic calamity up close. And though I don’t have a single answer to this problem, a starting point in my rationale is– considering that we know what the problem is… isn’t it time we stopped promoting it?
What deserves vitriol is the xenophobia aimed at tourists (and generally all non-residents of the island) and justifying it by framing anecdotes as real data. To quote: “In an informal survey I did among friends and acquaintances, most of them over 60, the great majority acknowledged that they had avoided tourists as much as possible this summer… Orcas Islanders have been ceding our public spaces to tourists this summer, for I recognize few islanders when I do go into town. We certainly need the dollars they spend here, but at what cost?”
You either have the data to draw the conclusions or you don’t. This article is “guesstimation” at best.
To address your first comment, D. L. Roth, had there been no tourist/visitor surge this summer, we could easily and confidently be opening our schools for in-person learning, which I strongly prefer over online learning for many reasons. The County Health Department had effectively stamped out Covid-19 in spring, as there were absolutely NO confirmed cases between mid-April and late May. And there certainly was NO community spread of the disease. Had there been no tourist/visitor surge, we might have had a few cases over the summer due to islanders going to the mainland or mainlanders visiting friends here. The 17 cases we did experience between Memorial Day and Labor Day have been largely due to the tourist/visitor surge, but they fortunately did not lead to larger outbreaks or (hopefully) community spread of the disease, thanks again to Dr. James and the Health Department.
And 100-200 infectious tourists and visitors is a conservative estimate, not a “guesstimate.” Here’s why. If you take the time to read my June 29 guest column, cited as ref. 1 above, you can find the basis for this calculation — about half the normal number of daily visitors to Orcas Island and June DOH figures for infectious cases in Western Washington counties. That gave 1 to 2 infectious tourists/visitors per day in June; multiply by 100 days in the summer and you get the above range. But the tourist surge always peaks in July and August, as did the infectiousness of Western Washington visitors. Not to mention the (probably small) fraction of people who came from farther away (like Arizona and California) but had higher rates of infection. It’s not unreasonable to suggest an actual number as high as 500. The 100-200 range comes in on the low side of the possible range and is thus conservative.
On Saturday morning, August 29, I went to Eastsound to visit the farmers market and amble about North Beach Road and Main Street, hoping to do some shopping and run into some friends — as I had done almost every summer Saturday in previous years. But I recognized only three individuals in about an hour, far fewer than would have been normal in 2019. That’s called “data,” perhaps anecdotal, but data nonetheless, which confirmed what my survey (which is also data) was then telling me: that Orcas Islanders have been avoiding Eastsound as much as possible, especially on weekends.
And now I have a question for you, D. L. Roth: Who are you, anyway? Are you a real person, or is this a pseudonym hiding your identity? A brief Google search turns up only your Orcas Issues (or Orcasonian) comments, nothing else. And there is no record of you in the phone books. Do you really exist?
Many, many Orcas Islanders know who I am and respect my opinions. Please tell us why we should respect yours. I am open to learning.
The closer a community feels it is, the less friendly it is to outsiders and the more willing to impose a double standard on “them.” Several San Juan COVID-19 cases arose from islanders going to Costco (“just a short trip”), having mainland friends and family (“Well? They’re family, they’re friends! What of it? I know and love these people”) [Implication: “And I have no love for them, the outsiders who I am absolutely certain bring in the virus]. What an easy emotional groove to fall into, and how wildly inaccurate … but who cares, because it unites the local community and gains local status for the speaker. Emotional energy and personal status do not imply either truth or accuracy. Simultaneity (tourists being in the county when a case occurs) is not causality.
Yes, tourism does increase the risk, but it’s not only manageable, its management as to tourism has been working. We need to keep up our good record and try not to blemish it ourselves while blaming others.
Case investigations clearly show tourism is not the cause of cases in the islands. Locals largely are. Yet the county mandates on tourism, by Michael’s “heroes,” continue to widely decimate local businesses and the community as a whole. You can call that a misdirected mandate. Restrictions on tourism should be lifted immediately and businesses trusted to manage the problem (as they have shown to be successful in doing). Literally little to no community spread of Covid-19 in the islands, ever, six months and running, even during the “tourist surge.” Follow the data, right?