— from Michael Riordan —

In view of the recent upsurge in coronavirus cases throughout the Western United States, it would be foolhardy for the County to proceed further with plans to reopen the San Juan Islands to visitors from the mainland. According to the official New York Times database this morning, there was a 76 percent increase (!) in new cases nationally during the past two weeks — occurring largely in the South and West — with Arizona, Florida and Texas hitting new all-time highs. We are in a completely new phase of the pandemic.

Our neighbor states Oregon and Idaho have paused in their reopening plans due to the upsurges in recent weeks. And in California, from which many island visitors come, due to its large population, the governor has ordered bars and nightspots to be closed in seven counties (including Los Angeles), backtracking on the state’s reopening plans.

Closer to home, Washington state cases have recently exceeded 500 a day, versus about half that in May. We also experienced a 5.3 percent “positivity rating” during the past week, according to the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 database; that’s the ratio of positive cases to total tests, a key measure of how well the state is doing in fighting the virus. For comparison, San Juan County’s overall positivity rating is an exceedingly good 1 percent.

Even closer to home, Skagit County has witnessed an upsurge in positivity ratings recorded at its drive-through testing center at Skagit Valley Community College, which I follow religiously. From a late-May low of less than 0.3 percent, it has ballooned to 2.5 percent during the last two weeks. As that facility is open to almost all comers, this figure likely gives a good measure of the level of virus infections in that county — which many
of us visit regularly to shop and stock up on bulk supplies (as will some visitors).

Another stab at the Western Washington infection rate is a June 25 analysis of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties just published by the WA Department of Health (and reported in Orcas Issues on Sunday evening). That report gives numbers like 0.1 to 0.2 percent in mid-June but rising rather alarmingly.

What do all these numbers portend for San Juan County? According to a 2018 study of summer visitors, we can expect an average 6,000 arriving per day, with about 2,000 coming to Orcas Island. Lets say for argument that 1 percent of these visitors are infectious. Then we can expect about 60 active coronavirus carriers per day arriving in the islands, and 20 on Orcas Island. If we instead use only half the number of visitors, which is reasonable this summer (especially if the county does not proceed to Phase 3), then the number of carriers will be cut in half, too. And if we use the lowest reasonable infection rate of 0.2 percent, that’s still two new active carriers per day on Orcas Island.

The obvious danger is that one or more of these active Covid-19 carriers will infect islanders, despite all the commendable efforts to preclude that happening. We cross paths with tourists in many places — for example, in restaurants and Island Market and on the trails at Moran State Park. Any infections will probably not be known until after the visitor(s) leaves — making contact tracing difficult to impossible. Such infections will place a tremendous burden on the County Health Department and island medical
services. A few cases may be manageable, but not dozens of them.

We have so far been fortunate to avoid the outbreaks that have been occurring on the mainland, thanks to the diligence of County Health Officer Frank James and all the community-minded efforts of individual islanders and businesses. Community spread of the virus has not happened here. But this success means that the vast majority of islanders remain susceptible; we are like dry woodlands awaiting a spark to ignite a forest fire.

This is of extreme concern for the 34 percent of islanders over age 65 (including yours truly) — about 1,500 year-round Orcas Island residents — for whom the Covid-19 pandemic is a life-and-death matter. Washington state statistics indicate that about 90 percent of deaths are occurring among citizens age 60 and older. We are the driest of the dry wood.

Therefore prudence dictates that the county reopening remain at Phase 2 well into July and possibly for the remainder of the summer, until the coronavirus upsurges abate on the mainland. That will still allow a modest level of tourist activity, one that we may be able to cope with, while trying to protect the lives of the most vulnerable citizens.

It’s time to hit the Pause button.

Michael Riordan writes about science, technology and public policy from his home in Eastsound.

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