||| BY MATTHEW GILBERT, theORCASONIAN REPORTER |||

First, a lengthy preamble for context.

In “How Climate Migration Will Reshape America,” journalist Abrahm Lustgarten, looking at the not-too-distant future, writes that “The millions of people moving north will mostly head to the cities of the Northeast and Northwest, which will see their populations grow by roughly 10 percent, according to one model.” I have personally heard from three friends in fire-ravaged California who have set their sights on the Northwest. Anecdotally, this summer saw more owner-occupants of “second homes” who decided to stay longer – some of whom are planning to make them a primary residence. The pandemic was the spark, but it’s one of many, and a changing climate could be added to the list.

Climate change (and its impacts) was not added as a separate element in the 2016-2036 San Juan County Comprehensive Plan – still being written – despite strong public interest when the update was launched in 2018. The county instead decided to address those impacts in the various elements that already exist – Housing, Land Use, Transportation, Water Resources, Economic Development – though it’s difficult to determine what those enhancements are. A paragraph on climate change was added to the Comp Plan Vision Statement:

Our community sets an example with its response to climate change. We prepare to address the negative effects in advance before they become crises. Our community encourages voluntary efforts and enacts incentives and regulations if necessary to reduce our carbon footprint.

Sifting the Data
This year’s pandemic certainly chilled tourism traffic (system-wide ferry ridership over Labor Day was 35% below normal, roughly approximating a reduced schedule), but the underlying conditions that make these islands appealing haven’t changed. They suggest that additional thought be given to whether the county has the right tools and vision to anticipate and manage what could be an acceleration in both visitors and permanent residents on top of current trends.

To wit:

  • There has been a steady uptick in county residential building permits over the last five years, from 88 to 100+.
  • Despite the pandemic, real estate sales in San Juan County in the first half of 2020 were comparable to 2019 – up slightly in transactions, down slightly in dollar volume. On Orcas, there was a 10% increase in transactions and a 19% decrease in volume. Multiple offers were not uncommon. Meanwhile, the rental market has essentially dried up. Applications for the new OPAL project were double the available vacancies.
  • The county’s 2020 Change of Value Notices, based on sales between January 1, 2019 and April 30, 2020, reports that, “The total assessed value for San Juan County increased more than $200 Million over last year, including $110 Million in new construction value.”
  • According to Housing Program Coordinator Ryan Page, 37% of the county’s 14,030 housing units are categorized as “For Seasonal, recreational, or occasional use” (second homes) – most of them empty.
  • Ferry traffic to the islands has increased approximately 15% since 2011 to 950,000 vehicles and 2 million riders, with vehicle growth outpacing rider growth. There is no reason to assume that trend won’t continue once the pandemic is
    behind us.
  • While this year’s number of new vacation rental permits is uncharacteristically low, the trend has been upward. A cap on vacation rentals (VRs) is under discussion in the Comp Plan update, but until something is enacted, more VRs will keep adding to visitor impacts.
  • There are approximately 5,000 developable lots in the rural areas of the county. Given that most new folks moving to the islands end up outside existing activity centers, preserving rural character will become more challenging.
  • Yearly population growth since 2000 has been under 1.0% – below projections. But as more second homes become first homes, and with a steady increase in building permits, that rate may go up. An increase in the population would also mean more visitor traffic.

All of this puts increasing pressure on: the county’s physical infrastructure, its ability to provide necessary services (e.g., water, medical, housing, transportation), progress on reducing our carbon footprint, and the integrity of our natural spaces and rural character. The Comp Plan update is attempting to accommodate those needs into 2036 based on a projected growth rate of 1.0%, but what if the actual number is quite a bit higher?

This pandemic year notwithstanding, a fundamental tension remains between preserving “quality of life,” meeting community needs, and sustaining economic viability that could be squeezed even more by climate impacts.

Against this background, we asked the County Council candidates for District 2 the following three-part question:

If “climate change/migration,” along with existing trends, drives unexpected growth in population and visitor traffic:

  • Should the county keep expanding its services and infrastructure to meet those needs or develop new ways to manage that growth?
  • Is the county sufficiently equipped with the tools and understanding to know how many people the islands can “comfortably” accommodate?
  • Where is the county most vulnerable (e.g., water availability, medical services, housing) and what, specifically, would you do to address it?

Cindy Wolf responds:

If all of our 5,190 seasonal homes were to become primary homes for two people (and none of our 5,000 developable parcels get developed), we would experience a population increase equivalent to the current population of San Juan Island. The attendant burden on our infrastructure will be enormous. We will require more housing for trades people and service workers, more water supply, more ferry service, more demand for health care, more energy demand, and so on. The county does not have a plan to address this. The county Comprehensive Plan will not suffice.

Cities and counties often control growth through permitting, issuing only as many building permits per year as they project they can cope with in terms of infrastructure improvements. If very little of our current housing stock converts to year- round, this method of control might work. The problem is that it tends to drive up real estate prices, and we’d be imposing limits on the industry responsible for 19% of gross profits and 18% of earnings in the county economy (per the EDC website).

Slowing growth to a manageable pace means we must create livelihoods that do not depend on new housing construction or tourism. Defining an appropriate rate of growth requires some data we simply do not have. Funding for our proposed water survey fell victim to the governor’s COVID-related budget cuts, so we have no idea what our total freshwater resource is and how quickly we are already losing it to saltwater intrusion and aquifer depletion. We also need to know how much excess capacity we have in our utilities. Eastsound Water and Sewer is already in need of a third treatment tank and, ideally, would like a fourth so the first two can undergo maintenance. How much acceleration are we seeing in year-round home purchases? In the face of intense market pressure, we need to make land and housing available to young
workers.

We need a much better understanding our current situation so we can develop a plan based on the changes and tradeoffs we are willing to make. Are we all willing to use less water to make room for more people? Are we willing to pay higher ferry fares in order to build more boats or compete with more people for the same number of reservation spots? Developing and implementing goals based in reality will make for a better outcome than guesswork and nostalgia.

Rick Hughes responds:

San Juan County is certainly equipped to understand future populations in our islands. We’ve had this conversation for many years and have been planning accordingly. Twenty years ago, even, the county committed to expanding roads to include four-foot shoulders between major points of interest. Comprehensive trails networks have been on the list for just as long. We’re just now getting around to some of these things, but we’re getting them done. LTE Wireless; affordable housing; expanding our emergency response network; the dog park; the Exchange – are all recent improvements made in our community. In planning and executing these, there was never a feeling that we needed to keep up with growth or attract visitors. Ultimately, it’s been about – and should continue to be about – identifying what our community needs and doing our best to fill that need. That is the role of government.

And beyond infrastructure, we have other issues to tackle: Senior care, medical care, and a reliable ferry system are just a few. I feel affordable housing is likely our biggest challenge. With some homes lost to the vacation rental inventory – and even more to new home purchases by both year-round and part-time residents – our teachers, nurses, police officers, and tradespeople are struggling to find secure housing. A community clearly cannot thrive if its lifeblood is struggling. This is why the county has committed almost $4M to developing affordable housing and why I am committed to making sure this – and our other challenges – are met one way or another.

But it won’t be easy. The recent – and likely lingering – effects of Covid-19 on our economy are straining our budget and our ability to provide even our core services. In order to maintain a sustainable model of service to our community, we will need to do more than just identify needs and deliver services. We will need to be judicious and forward thinking. We’ll need to make tough decisions and look outside of the box for solutions to situations we’ve never seen before. My working relationships with government leaders and my experience budgeting on both the county and business level has proven extremely valuable thus far. If we can borrow on the forward thinking that has brought us to this point, I’m confident we will find our way through so that we can continue to increase the quality of life for everyone in our county.

 

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