Scientists Say but Don’t Agree: We’re Over-Extended

By Margie Doyle

At the August Eastsound Planning Review Committee (EPRC) meeting, resigning EPRC member Bob Connell presented an analysis of elements of local development that have come before the EPRC in recent years.

Connell, who has a Bachelor’s Degree in Civil Engineering from Columbia University and a Masters Degree in Computer Science from the Oregon Graduate Institute, presented information regarding:

• local carrying capacity
• housing
• climate change
• and the ways EPRC could address those issues.

Connell emphasized that his analysis was a platform for discussing these issues, and as such was valuable in presenting a “snapshot” of where we are now; only through further fact-finding and discussion will it be of continuing value, he said.

Carrying Capacity

“Carrying Capacity” is defined as “the maximum population that an area will support without undergoing deterioration.” It assumes all resources and materials are obtained locally with no external imports, and all waste is dealt with locally as well.

He used the web tool found by Orcas Library Director and Sustainable Orcas Island (SOI) member Phil Heikkinen, called “Carrying Capacity Dashboard.” It was written by Australian PhD student Murray Lane at Queensland University of Technology. The EPRC presentation compared Australia, the United States, San Juan County and Orcas Island, primarily taking into account elements such as land usage and population.

The local group Sustainable Orcas Island (SOI) first took on the project of determining the carrying capacity of Orcas Island, using the “Carrying Capacity Dashboard” and arrived at conclusions similar to Connell’s. Connell’s presentation indicated that “we have probably exceeded the carrying capacity for Orcas Island and San Juan County,” he said.

In order to determine the possible carrying capacities of each area, first the Dashboard was used to calculate baseline numbers. “The tool is a web-based computer program so its answers may not be definitive, although they are reasonable,” said Connell. The numbers for each area are shown in the table below:

These carrying capacity numbers are way below current population numbers for each area, so Connell looked on the web for studies showing other values for the carrying capacity of the U.S. He then looked at what year the U.S. actually had that population, to give a feeling for what the U.S. was like in those years and how sustainable the U.S. would’ve been at that time. The results are shown in the table below:

Next he scaled up the carrying capacity values for both San Juan County and Orcas Island using these study values to see what the their corresponding carrying capacity values would be, then calculated how much over carrying capacity the area would be for each value. For San Juan County:

For Orcas Island:

“We don’t want to sit here debating an exact number; the point is the data is all on one side, that’s a bit harder to explain away. The value of scaling is people can look at the U.S. as a whole. Orcas Island is too small and too unique; but people can think about the U.S, and what it was like then and relate historically to those years. The U.S. scaling was used because people can more or less think about what the U.S. was like in their own history and then scale San Juan County and Orcas Island to what was reasonable.”

Connell said, following his presentation to the EPRC, “I don’t want it to be considered conclusive, but I want to encourage other people to participate. Still, you need to have some way to show what you’re saying, as we don’t have consensus even in the scientific field.”

“This is a range. I’d love to have other people come up with other ways to analyze this;  at least this is something they can get their head around and think about. The fact that the conclusions regarding carrying capacity is so skewed one way should be noted.”

“People can reach their own conclusions: the conclusion I want to reach is when you look at the carrying capacity questions, you’ve got to have a methodology behind it. If you believe 100 million national population is the carrying capacity, Orcas is still 4.6 times over,” said Connell.

He said that although Orcas Island had an economy that was sustainable in the past, through agricultural, forestry and fishing exports, the past several decades have seen the over-extension of construction and real estate, which are no longer healthy economic factors. “We need to develop a sustainability mode, now it’s basically based on tourism,” says Connell. “Orcas can stay like it is but it’s only sustainable as long as we don’t have something that ultimately changes things, like a challenging financial event, heavily-reduced tourism, or a compromised or challenged ferry system.”

He recommended asking the County to support planning based on the carrying capacity analysis findings and further discussion to:

• adopt the State Office of Financial Management’s (OFM) low 20-year population forecast which determines planning as part of Growth Management Act (GMA) compliance. “In 2010 it was learned that we didn’t grow as much as the projection which the county had used — it was way over. With the current economy and with people moving off island, it would probably be smart looking forward to take the low number for the next planning cycle,” Connell said;
• reduce Urban Growth Area (UGA) boundaries to the smallest area allowed; county governments are supposed to set UGA boundaries consistent with planning; and not to add extra capacity if you can’t prove you need it;
• minimize other facets of upscale planning to reflect lower population projections

Housing
“In support of conservation of land in general and in light of the stressed local housing market and to help keep work local,” Connell advised focusing on re-use and renovation of housing. He sited the work of OPAL Community Land Trust, particularly in their reuse of “scatter houses” that are in an existing neighborhoods in Olga and Eastsound; and OPAL’s renovation of the Lavender Hollow apartments.

Climate Change
Climate change is defined as any substantial change in Earth’s climate that lasts for an extended period of time. Global warming refers to climate change that causes an increase in the average temperature of the lower atmosphere. Global warming can have many different causes, but it is most commonly associated with human interference, specifically the release of excessive amounts of greenhouse gases. (EPA, 2006)

Connell’s conclusions on climate change elements are based on a paper by, among others, the U.S.G.S and University of Washington called “Pacific Northwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment.” That research includes the history and projections of temperature and precipitation.

Temperature

Research indicates that the trend in global warming will continue, with a projection of increased temperatures of 1.8°C or 3.2°F by the 2040s and 3.0°C or 5.3°F by the 2080s.

Precipitation
Current trends show that there will be general increases in precipitation with a more intense seasonal cycle: autumns and winters may become wetter and summers drier. Further, regional climate models indicate that extreme precipitation events will increase.

Connell said, “It’s not just increased rain, but rain coming down more intensely. This results in more stormwater runoff, because the ground will be saturated.”

“And in summer, we get worried about the water table. Texas is a great example. After severe drought in the 1950s, they doubled their storage capacity, by increasing their reservoirs and pumping water into the ground. They didn’t want the situation to happen again. Even now, with the record-breaking temperatures, they started with a higher amount, but they’re still down to a third.”

Consequences of these temperature and precipitation changes are the increased probability and intensity of fires; extreme precipitation, and increasing length of the summer dry period.

EPRC Planning
The implications for EPRC planning suggested at the August 2 meeting were:

• need for effective stormwater runoff with increased storm intensity and the need to work with the county to mitigate
• need to install more “holding areas” in the subarea (such as the Mount Stormwater project west of the Village Green)
• work with the Fire Department’s “Firewise” program, to mitigate fire risk
• work with EWUA to validate water quantities and available locations for firefighting purposes
• possibly add more water retention ponds
• consult the County’s Wildfire Protection Plan
• address aquifer recharge, diminished with increased stormwater runoff

Bob Connell had served on the EPRC for a number of years, and has moved to the Seattle area with his wife Barb Skotte, and daughter Monica, in order to help care for Barb’s mother. The Connells will continue to own property on Orcas and hope to return full-time at some point to Orcas Island.