— from Michael Riordan —
As the Fourth of July weekend begins, the nation to the east that some of us call ‘Merica seems in utter disarray — afflicted by police violence and racial unrest unlike anything witnessed in half a century, a severe pandemic that has taken over 125,000 lives and may eventually rival the Civil War in casualties, and over 15 million out of work.
We in the San Juan Islands have been largely insulated from this unparalleled chaos. But it is hardly time for the usual parades, picnics and fireworks.
Is this what the current US president meant when he promised to make America great again? Is this what he implied by his inaugural slogan, “America First”?
The United States is certainly first among nations in coronavirus deaths. With only about 4 percent of the world’s population, we have experienced almost a quarter of its Covid-19 deaths — far more than Brazil or Russia.
And it sure seems that the rest of ‘Merica wants desperately to join us here in our relatively safe islands, if the surging rivers of cars coming off the Anacortes ferry are any indication. Although the great majority are from Washington and Oregon, I have so far witnessed many license plates from Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, Texas, Utah and Wyoming — as well as several from as far away as Florida, Maine, Minnesota, South Carolina and Virginia. They can’t get into Canada, so maybe they’re coming here instead.
Nothing seems changed very much from previous Fourth of July weekends
—except for the lack of a parade and the evening fireworks display.
This year, most of us islanders will be hunkering down at home, trying to avoid the crowds of mainlanders and fearful of contacting the coronavirus that some of them inevitably bring with them — along with their bikes, canoes, kayaks and paddleboards.
Hopefully we can survive this tourist onslaught with only a few islander cases of Covid-19 that get tracked down and quickly isolated, before any community spread of the virus begins. We have been lucky so far, and diligent, but is our luck about to run out?
Yesterday I saw a local pilot after he landed, assisting the family to the parking lot and nobody was wearing a mask !
We all need to be responsible so wearing a mask and keeping our distance is very important !
As one who sometimes listens to Radio Canada, I often compare their experiences with ours. Their success (so far) with the coronavirus pandemic is worth watching.
To take some of the political aspects out of it, let’s focus on Canada (36 Million people) and California, with a similar population (39 Million, about 11% of the US population). Like California, Canada and most of its provinces are led by liberal governments which adopted “stay at home” strategies during early days of the pandemic. Early on, Canadians were asked to wear face coverings, it wasn’t labelled “voluntary”. California’s governor also urged masks early on, and made them mandatory in mid-June.
Here are some relevant comparisons:
Population Cases Deaths Tests
Canada 36 Million 105,000 (.29%) 8,674 (.024%) 2.9 Mil (8.1%)
Calif. 39 Million 254,000 (.65%) 6,316 (.016%) 4.6 Mil (11.7%)
U.S. 328.2 Mil 2,860,000 (.87%) 132,000 (.040%) 36.3 Mil (11.0%)
Notes: The percentages shown are percentages of total population. The testing numbers are rough, since some people (including most positives) are tested multiple times, and some governments have been reporting antibody tests along with live virus tests.
Canada’s reported new cases peaked around May 1st, and have declined to a current rate of ONLY ABOUT 300 NEW CASES PER DAY! California’s new cases are still peaking, and increasing at the rate of about 6,000 per day – 20 times the rate in Canada!! And new cases across the US are increasing at an even greater rate (as a percentage of population) than in California.
Canada has had fewer cases, but more deaths than California (perhaps due to less testing). The Canadian government reports high death counts in nursing homes and similar facilities, and seems to acknowledge a poor government response to the situation in those very vulnerable facilities. And note: California infections are now rising rapidly, so their death rate could soon rise.
California’s death rate is currently only 67% of Canada’s, and only 40% of the US death rate. In both Canada and California, cases and deaths have been lower than the US average.
What might we learn from Canada? They were able to perform aggressive testing very early, and used the results to help control the spread of the virus through contact tracing. Their response to the virus was led by a highly respected cabinet official who was given strong support by both major political parties. There hasn’t been a partisan aspect to the use of masks, which were urged as national policy early on (although not required), and political leaders set an example — from Prime Minister Trudeau on down.
It’s also interesting that on March 16th, Canada virtually shut down their borders to foreign nationals and required those who did enter to quarantine. California did not attempt to restrict entry from other states, even though neighboring Nevada and Arizona are “hot spots”. Interestingly, New York recently has taken the unprecedented step of restricting US citizens from entering New York from states with coronavirus hot spots.
To me, all this tends to confirm what epidemiologists have been telling us about testing, contact tracing, and wearing masks — and that success in one town or state isn’t enough as long as people move in and out from less successful areas. Our mobility necessitates a well planned nationwide response. Canada has one, and seems well positioned going forward, but only time will tell. I say it’s worth keeping an eye to the north.
‘Go straight home’: B.C. premier concerned Americans abusing border exemption
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/go-straight-home-b-c-premier-concerned-americans-abusing-border-exemption-1.5008608
A couple of long-time residents here have told me “we’re in phase III now,” and not ironically. That apparently is the assumption of the hordes of tourists now visiting from across the USA, as Michael has observed. Let’s hope that our coming spike in infections is a small one.