||| FROM BUILDINGS & CITIES.ORG |||
Cities as fossil-dependent emergent phenomena
Modern cities and mega-cities exist because they can. No one planned for a metro London of 15 million people, a Shanghai of 29 million or for Tokyo’s spectacular 41 million — that’s more than the population of Canada, the world’s second largest country! Mega-cities and other major cities are truly ‘emergent phenomena’ of the modern techno-industrial age and manifestations of humanity’s explosive growth in the past two centuries. And it truly was explosive—300,000 years of anatomically modern human history had passed before the population reached its first billion in the early 19th Century. Then, in just 200 years, 1/1500th as much time, humanity ballooned eight-fold to top eight billion in 2023; meanwhile, real gross world product expanded 100 times. Remarkably, economists, politicians, urban planners and most ordinary citizens consider this brief spurt of exponential economic and population growth—particularly urban population growth—to be the norm. We’ve become addicted to it. But in reality, it is the single most anomalous period in human history. More remarkably still, many people at all levels expect the urban future to unfold as a technology-enhanced version of the recent past! The United Nations projects that cities will add more than two billion people—if only mostly to their slums and barrios—by 2050 (U.N. 2018).
It is rarely acknowledged but a crucial fact that this explosive anomaly was made possible by fossil fuels (FF). Coal, oil and natural gas are prodigious sources of potential and possibilities. Abundant cheap energy was, and still is, necessary, not only to ‘build out’ our cities, but also to supply them with everything—all the food, consumer goods, and raw materials needed to defend urban infrastructure against the corrosive workings of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. (The 2nd law is manifested in the tendency of everything to wear out and run down—consider the often dismal state of roads, bridges and other infrastructure in many large cities today.) Stand on the sidewalk near a major construction or repair site on a busy road in any modern city—the clamour and din of excavators, cement mixers, tipper-trucks and power tools blending with the road noise generated by passing delivery and passenger vehicles is the sound of raw energy—mostly FF—at work. All our transportation networks, and electronic communications systems, our water supply, sewage disposal and related urban infrastructure are, to a large degree, FF dependent. And what about the prodigious quantities of nutrients and calories needed to sustain the world’s urban billions? Fossil fuels and petroleum-derived inputs (e.g. pesticides, fertilizers) inject ten times as much energy into agriculture and food processing as does photosynthesis and are thus crucial to the industrial-scale food production that provisions every major city.
Bottom line? Modern cities—mega-cities in particular—are the most spectacular physical products of, and remain largely dependent on, fossil fuels. Other factors, particularly, improving sanitation and public health standards (themselves often FF dependent) contributed to humanity’s exuberant expansion, but it is fossil energy that made the modern mostly urban world possible.
And that presents a problem.
Climate change and the energy conundrum
Cities’ profound dependence on FFs weighs heavily on the future of urbanisation. First, FFs are a major source of CO2 emissions—CO2 is an unavoidable entropic product of fossil fuel combustion and the principal driver of anthropogenic climate change. With increasing FF use, atmospheric CO2 and other GHG concentrations are increasing. The current trajectory implies a catastrophic three to four Celsius degrees mean global warming in this century, far above the existing one Co+ warming that is already causing unprecedented climate havoc around the world. In recognition of unfolding climate disaster, parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) committed in the 2015 COP21 Paris Agreement to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” (IPCC 2018).
Commitment is one thing, decisive action another; the official response has been dismal. The voluntary emissions reductions — nationally determined contributions that were pledged in Paris — constitute only a third of the reductions needed to limit warming to even 2°C and are not always being honoured. As a result, emissions continue to rise, global mean temperature is at a record high and many climate scientists believe the world has already blown past the more stringent 1.5°C warming limit (Hansen et al.2023). (When the final records are compiled, 2024 is expected to be the first year to exceed the 1.5°C warming limit set by the UN Paris Agreement.)
But what about the much-vaunted green clean energy revolution? It is true that rapid growth of so-called modern renewable energy (RE), mostly by wind turbines and solar PV panels, has made significant inroads displacing FF (mainly coal) from electricity production in a few countries. However, green electricity merely adds to existing energy sources. Fossil energy use has been expanding even faster and actually reached record levels in 2024. More than half the FFs ever consumed by humanity have been burned since 1992, the year the UN committed to limiting emissions! As a result, CO2 emissions have grown from 22.5 billion tonnes (Gt) in 1992 to 41.6 Gt in 2024 and atmospheric CO2 levels grew from 360 to 422.5 parts per million to 52% above pre-industrial levels.
Bottom line? FFs still provide ~81% of the urban world’s primary energy demand, a proportion that is essentially unchanged since the UNFCC was framed in 1992. Any positive effect on emissions of the massive investment in so-called clean green has largely been neutered by increasing global demand for energy. Wind and solar power (W&S), where most investment is going, gave usonly 14.3% of global electricity production in 2023 (compared to ~60% by fossil fuels). But electricity constitutes only ~19% of global energy supply. Thus, despite the promotional hype, billions invested, and rapid capacity growth, W&S electricity contributed only ~2.7% to the world’s final (consumer level) energy consumption in 2023 (data from E.I. 2024).
The fact is there is no energy transition! (Fressoz 2024).
But don’t think for a moment the situation couldn’t be worse.
Overshoot: the over-riding existential threat
Global heating poses a horrific challenge, but climate change is only one co-symptom of a much greater malaise. Explosive growth has propelled the human enterprise into a state of advanced ecological overshoot (EO) (Catton 1982, Rees 2023). EO exists when the human consumption of bioresources exceeds the regenerative capacity of our supporting ecosystems, and the production of wastes overwhelms their assimilative capacities. Co-symptoms include plunging biodiversity, ocean acidification, tropical deforestation, land/soil degradation, the pollution of land air and water, contamination of food supplies, etc., etc.—all so-called ‘environmental’ problems. When in overshoot, the world community can achieve further growth—and even just maintain itself—only by depleting essential natural capital and overtaxing the life-support functions of the ecosphere including the climate system, i.e. by destroying the biophysical basis of its own existence.
And that is precisely what we are doing. The global footprint network monitors the annual occurrence of ‘Earth Overshoot Day,’ the date in the year when humanity’s demand for ecological resources exceeds nature’s budget (supply) for that year (GFN 2024). Each year, Overshoot Day occurs a little earlier as demand increases and eco-production declines with accelerating ecosystems degradation—in 2024, it fell on August 1. Remember, the difference between human demand and nature’s supply of even renewable resources can be made up only by depleting remaining natural capital stocks—fish stocks, forests, soil organic matter and nutrients, ground water, etc.—that took thousands of years to accumulate in nature, and by over-filling nature’s waste sinks. (Even climate change is a waste-management issue—CO2 is the greatest waste by weight of industrial economies.)
Think about this for a moment. Overshoot means that humanity is running an ecological deficit, a material deficit far more important than the fiscal deficits that preoccupy politicians. Numerous recent analyses present the evidence that that urban civilisation is on track to experience a ‘ghastly’ future (e.g. Bradshaw et al. 2021; Fletcher et al 2024). Yet most politicians, like their constituents, have never heard of overshoot. Instead, popular interest swings with media attention among its various individual symptoms—climate change, micro-plastic pollution, falling sperm counts, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic—without connecting the dots. The fact is that humans generally have great difficulty thinking in complex systems terms. This cognitive impairment is crucial because overshoot is the ultimate ecological meta-problem. Biodiversity loss, air/land/water pollution, climate change, impending resource scarcity—pick your issue—all result from overshoot. We cannot ‘solve’ any major symptom of overshoot, including climate change, in isolation from any other. Conversely, tackling overshoot directly would address all its symptoms simultaneously.
But here’s the rub—in simple terms, overshoot means there are too many people consuming and polluting too much (Rees 2023). By definition, the only way to ‘tackle’ EO is by significant absolute reductions in energy/material consumption and smaller human numbers—and this solution is anathema to modern techno-industrial (MTI) culture.
Which brings us back to population, urbanisation and the future of cities.
Between a quintessential ‘rock and a hard place’
Any political leader who moved aggressively to cut FF use by nearly 50% as required by 2030 (W.E.F. 2022) without viable substitutes and a comprehensive socioeconomic restructuring plan would be courting economic and political disaster. Most countries would face strict rationing of energy and the world would suffer from: continued global warming in the short term (even with further expansion of ‘clean’ electricity); increasingly erratic weather; inadequate energy supplies; economic contraction; falling incomes; rising inequality and widespread unemployment; broken supply lines, particularly interurban transportation; failing agriculture; food and other resource shortages; local famines and global food shortages; civil unrest; mass migrations and abandoned cities; geopolitical chaos. Looking ahead, the expected 60% expansion of cities (by 2050) could not occur; indeed, it would likely be impossible to maintain existing large cities and mega-cities. Whither their existing populations?
All of which explains why global society has taken an alternative course. Most senior governments, urban administrations, international organisations, many academic analysts and even environmental organisations have bought into the mythic green renewable energy (RE) transition. Governments have even actively helped delude their populations into thinking we can ‘carry on carrying on’ equipped with heat pumps, EVs, and ‘smarter’ cities.
It’s an easy sell—why would people fear an existential crisis if no major life-style changes are necessary to resolve it—or, indeed, if new technologies present opportunities for economic prosperity? Note that the only politically feasible ‘solutions’ to climate change—high-tech wind turbines, solar photovoltaics, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles, heat pumps, as yet unproved carbon-capture and storage technologies, etc., all require major capital investment. These techno-fixes serve as stimulants for economic growth, provide well-paying jobs and generate opportunities for profit. A prosperous future is assured. What’s not to like?
Plenty as it turns out. Far from addressing our eco-predicament, these technologies are all FF dependent and merely extend the eco-catastrophic status quo. As Spash (2016) and others have observed, politically acceptable ‘climate actions’ are those that make capitalist growth economies appear to be the solution to, rather than the cause of, our ecological crisis. The mainstream is essentially promoting business-as-usual-by-alternative-means. This approach is not ‘solving’ climate change and is actually worsening its cause, overshoot. Moreover, because the energy transition has barely started, we are not even getting the ‘by-alternative-means’ part. The reality is that the world has opted for continued fossil fuel dependence as long as economically accessible supplies hold out.
Just what is going on here? Mainstream governments, major corporations and their allies are behaving as exemplary temporal and spatial discounters: they prefer to accept the uncertain risk of future catastrophic climate change which (they hope) will mainly affect other people somewhere else, than the immediate certain risk of economic and social chaos at home.2 Moreover, as devotees of MTI sensibilities, they are bound to seek solutions self-referentially from within the neoliberal techno-expansionist paradigm. Assertive policies that would actually work to reduce carbon emissions but create energy supply shortages or other threats to economic growth are inadmissible; significant lifestyle changes are not on the table; population or family planning is still taboo. We continue to ignore/deny the reality of overshoot.
So, what’s at stake? On the world’s chosen growth-bound tack, fossil fuel use will continue for years and decades to come. Even in the best case, we can expect a catastrophic 2.4°C warming which means increasingly erratic weather; more and longer heat waves/droughts; more energetically violent storms and floods; extended wildfire seasons; accelerating desertification; melting permafrost and methane releases; water shortages; failing agriculture; widespread famine; the flooding and loss of many coastal cities; breakdown of national highway and marine transportation networks; the abandonment of increasingly uninhabitable regions; mass migrations; collapsed economies and geopolitical chaos. According to Environmental Risk Outlook 2021, at least 414 cities with a total 1.4 billion plus inhabitants, are at high or extreme risk from a combination of pollution, dwindling water supplies, extreme heat stress, and other impacts of climate change. In the more vulnerable parts of the world, severe heat and drought will render even rural regions uninhabitable. Recent research shows that just 2.7°C of warming alone could push as many as three billion people outside humanity’s historic safe climate niche in this century (Lenton et al. 2023). Again, there could be mass migrations involving one to two billion eco-refugees by mid to late century (see Baker 2021).
The world is in a genuine predicament, trapped between the toughest of rocks and most unyielding of hard places—decisive action would destroy the world as we know it; inaction could destroy the world as we know it. Predicaments have no solution, only outcomes. From this perspective, contrary to mainstream projections, the sun may well be setting on the era of urbanisation—how can anyone think seriously that, in present circumstances, we can build out cities to accommodate sustainably an additional two billion people? (Using what source of energy?) Devoid of cheap energy, cut off from vital supplies, economically drained, and hammered by extreme weather events, even existing large cities and megacities can only contract or be abandoned. Many will not survive the end of the century. Domestic chaos and widespread geopolitical conflict seems inevitable.
In Triumph of the City, his paean to human achievement, urban economist Edward Glaeser (2011) posits that “If the future is to be greener, then it must be more urban. For the sake of humanity and our planet, cities are—and must be—the wave of the future” (p. 222). Ironically, the ecological catastrophe that Glaeser supposed cities could head off may, instead, stop urbanisation in its tracks.
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From a purely intellectual honesty perspective, has anyone thought critically or care to validate (or refute) the claim, presented as fact, namely:
“It is rarely acknowledged but a crucial fact that this [growth of cities] explosive anomaly was made possible by fossil fuels (FF). Coal, oil and natural gas are prodigious sources of potential and possibilities. Abundant cheap energy was, and still is, necessary, not only to ‘build out’ our cities”
More specifically, I’m curious about the implied argument (“denying the antecedent”, for those who remember logic/rhetoric classes) used thereafter — that, if we weren’t so prolific in our use of energy (which we are…), then we wouldn’t have cities. On a moment’s reflection, it seems any uneven distribution of resources (i.e. grains here, fruits there, lumber in a 3rd location, cloth in yet another place) would require energy for transport. In fact, it could very well be the case, that, in net, cities are actually more energy efficient than a model of population density that is more rural, because cities at least centralize the consumption centers. If that were the case, this hypothetical alternate universe (without cheap, abundant, reliable energy) would be more city-biased.
Now, I can’t disagree with the fact that many of the conveniences we’ve gotten accustomed to in the last 50 years — everything from comfortable personal automobiles to Amazon 2-day delivery to (the latest) Generative AI assistants — are enabled by cheap (likely unsustainable so) cheap, reliable energy. Nor am I saying that cities are ideal communities (I do live on Orcas, after all). But I am arguing specifically that it’s not clear that more modest energy consumption would bias us against cities, and — more generally (a soapbox, yes) — that we be intellectually honest in our thinking, rather than simply seeking confirmation bias for our existing beliefs.
Cities are not the culprit, nor are they in my opinion, doomed. Energy of all kinds is more efficiently used, and shared, in cities, block heating being one example, and minimizing exposed surface to temperature extremes is another. Ultimately, as conditions progress, penthouses will not be prime real estate, but increased, not decreased concentrations of ultimately fewer (here I agree about population) will allow recovery of natural assets largely left alone. Today’s stratification of populations: urban, suburb=urban, rural, reflect social and economic stratification, of which each major island exhibits the same model. The model may change as attitudes and opportunities change.
Meanwhile, overshoot is with us and its effects will be multi-generational.
Why is this an issue for Orcas Island apart from the threat to our energy supply from urban energy demand?
Few people here live with shared walls or heating systems, most would not want them.
Cities are dying from political stupidity and immigration overshoot. I loved Seattle when I lived there 40 years ago. it has been destroyed by progressive nonthink.
Almost everything in this ‘article’” is debatable, at best. No, the world is not coming to an end. If you believe this, seek therapy.
So this is another fear-mongering article posted anonymously..
The larger a city the more profound its ecological footprint. The problem is not the size of any one city per say, but more the population of the world, and the choice of our overly consumptive lifestyles brought about by the discovery and use of once easy to obtain fossil fuels on a planet with finite resources.
Ken, Simon P. Michaux breaks some of this down for us in his report on The Mining of Minerals and the Limits to Growth (see conclusions on P-48), https://tupa.gtk.fi/raportti/arkisto/16_2021.pdf
And,
Art Berman puts this into easy to understand layman’s terms in his interview on Planet: Critical – Energy Wars (Art Berman) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHq_gGN2Oa0
Interesting and deeply troubling with little of it debatable except the conclusion that large cities will have to depopulate into the countryside. Eventually these worsening conditions will necessitate human adaptation that will be much harder for soft, entitled first world populations who are generally the very populations that have exacerbated climate warming and ecological overshoot in kingly, consumptive lifestyles. Rural infrastructure, or relative lack thereof, will certainly be terribly stressed as thousands of climate change refugees relocate. Eventually it will become quite Hobbesian .
Many potentially catastrophic triggers will likely greatly accelerated warming as we see with Arctic seas and lands now but the author does not even touch upon them.
The world, or planet earth, or even diverse biological life will not end nor will humans become extinct.
I think that Professor William Rees at UBC is far from anonymous and reasonable in his assessments that are quite mainstream really.
The real question for me nearing the end of my life is what can be done to improve the chances of healthy resilient communities out here while world economies born 15,000 years ago fail and collapse. Including good ol’d America.
Those fleeing the city are suburbanizing the countryside with effects little noticed, but accumulating in losses of different kinds. I agree that those responsible for Seattle’s governance have forgotten the prime directive of government: health, safety and welfare. But this is not because Seattle is a city, but because people are afraid to criticize what are ostensibly good aims without balancing the costs measured on a number of scales.
But cities remain the most efficient use of both energy and space, which considering our current population, are primary but shrinking assets. Nevertheless, here we live h at a pace natural to us. As currently designed and governed (including city planning) cities provide neither basic safety nor a pace or conditions allowing contemplation. Things go wrong if you can’t think but are reduced to reacting.
Communities are another matter. This is a difficult time for even “lite” communitarianism given the number and intensity of special self identity manifestos. Events will, I believe, force us to act together on matters and concerns that, notwithstanding our treasured individualism, require common effort of even those whose wealth and/or physical remoteness have led them to believe that they are exempt from those forces.
Whether we live in cities or in the country we need to keep in mind that land conversion is responsible for 20-25% of all carbon emissions.
We can’t change what we don’t know. We need to figure out what the problems really are. In reading this article and listening to the experts, (and in looking at some of the comments here), one can clearly see that we’re not all on the same page, and that there are some who do not see, (or perhaps want to see), what the problems really are.
There have been several excellent suggestions made in relation to this–
1) We assess where we are in terms of our current ecological footprint. This is only math, and there are people who do this for a fee.
2) This would give us a baseline from which we could start basing future policy decisions not only on economy, but also in an “ecology first” fashion, asking ourselves how our policy decisions (whether related to growth, tourism, an EV future, or decisions regarding our critical infrastructure and resource needs, etc.), how these decisions would affect our environment, our ecological systems, and our ecological footprint.
It’s no wonder that suicide is the third leading cause of death among young Americans and that over one in ten young people aged 15-25 report serious thoughts of suicide (CDC). It’s clear from articles like this one that younger generations face an impossibly bleak future, frequently prophesied in these pages by Professor Rees and his local acolyte: “But don’t think for a moment the situation couldn’t be worse… Numerous recent analyses present the evidence that that urban civilization is on track to experience a ‘ghastly’ future… increasingly erratic weather; inadequate energy supplies; economic contraction; falling incomes; rising inequality and widespread unemployment; broken supply lines, particularly interurban transportation; failing agriculture; food and other resource shortages; local famines and global food shortages; civil unrest; mass migrations and abandoned cities; geopolitical chaos,” etc., etc.
While I don’t disagree with the substance of the analysis or the diagnosis of ‘overshoot,’ nor with the importance of its warning or the direness of its implications, I find the unrelenting litany of sturm und drang to be unbalanced. Yes, we do have to recognize and acknowledge the problem. OK, so now what are we going to do about it? Is there no solution? No hope for our future?
Fortunately, many of the commenters above recognize that, although cities clearly typify and exacerbate the causes of overshoot, cities are not, in themselves, the problem. Nor is their future necessarily reliant on MTI (oh, please, enough with the acronyms!). As Mr. Appel points out, cities are “the most efficient use of both energy and space”–and remember, land conversion is one of the foremost causes of atmospheric warming and overshoot in general; and Mr. Singh rightly signals the urban advantages of energy efficiency, transport localization and markets, not to mention economic and social advantages, including work, housing and education, that draw rural populations to cities. (I don’t need to point out the economic and socio-political differences between urban and rural populations in this country). By 2050, almost 7 billion of the earth’s projected 9.8 billion people are expected to be living, by choice or by necessity, in urban areas. So, for better or worse, cities are our future.
And then, what about the better future? Are there alternatives to carbon energy consuming, GHG-producing MTI (pardon) cities? Here is a very brief and partial list of resources that include urban greening, localization, recycling by design, agroforestry, restoration ecology and rewilding for any readers who might like to start thinking ahead about positive, creative solutions:
https://regeneration.org/nexus
https://drawdown.org
https://ecocitybuilders.org
https://ecocitystandards.org
https://doughnuteconomics.org
To return to my original comment, then, about the future of our kids and grandkids: They will face huge challenges, no doubt; but there are resources. And aren’t they teaching and learning this stuff (geography, ecology, appropriate technology) in schools? Are they getting outdoors to do environmental education, nature work? We need to recruit (I am saying this literally) an eco-army of youth to apprentice and do this work, and show them that there ARE alternatives, there are choices, there’s hope and there’s work to be done.
Those of us in the middle seeking workable solutions amid the deafening cacophony created by the shouters and the doubters are attacked by both sides, and at the same time watch life mean less and less to more and more people who seek to do less and less while consuming more and more. If that is what we’re living for, its hollowness is likely to be most apparent to the young who are not yet distracted by the rat race.
Yes, this will take expansion of existing sciences and their branching into new sciences, but it will also take behavioral adjustment to respond to what we already know. This is the hardest part, in part because even professed environmentalists (the shouters) stoutly defend their continued use of items harmful to the environment (in this respect, we’re all hypocrites), and because those who do not so profess either deny the problem or point to economic dislocations whose proposed solution to date is largely, “Tax the rich!” to spend how much on exactly what?
So, the thinking will have to be done by the middle in a quiet place where its members can concentrate.
Evolution = Adaptation.
Those who adopt will survive, those who don’t ……
When it comes to politics…. nobody in the middle has e-v-e-r c-h-a-n-g-e-d a-n-y-t-h-i-n-g!
Those in the middle are the “swing vote” and they change EVERYTHING.
To influence them CONSENSUS must be achieved, building that requires SALESMANSHIP, not lectures.
You can believe that garbage if you want to, but I don’t. History shows us over and over that consensus has never changed anything. By the time a bill goes through congress and has reached consensus it has been so watered down that it simply maintains the status quo. Centrist views simply enforce the status quo.
Being in the middle isn’t a swing vote… they amount to nothing more than sitting on the fence post.