— by Matthew Gilbert, Orcas Issues reporter —
The 2019 edition of “Datapalooza,” the Economic Development Council’s (EDC) annual download of the year’s key economic statistics and trends, took place on December 4 at Emmanuel Parish. Attended by approximately 20 members of the public, the 90-minute presentation was again led by Anneliese Vance-Sherman, PhD, regional labor economist for the state’s Employment Security Department, and James McCafferty, director of WWU’s Center for Economic & Business Research. This is the fifth year that the EDC has hosted such a workshop.
The biggest takeaway one could draw from the data was that little has changed over the previous year. As reported in last year’s data roundup, San Juan County’s profile as a low wage, high cost-of-living community has stayed the course.
Employment
SJC still has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the state at 3.9% (most other rural counties track above 5% – King County is 2.7%), but that is highly influenced by the all-hands-on-deck summer job market. And while there are approximately 5,300 payroll jobs and total employment above 7,000, average annual “non-farm” employment still lags behind pre-Recession levels and seems to be leveling off.
The biggest industries in the county (based on share of employment) have also remained unchanged:
- Lodging and Food Services
- Government
- Retail
- Construction
- Health and “Social Assistance”
- Manufacturing
As for where new job growth (as opposed to “turnover jobs”) will be found, the “Annual Employment Forecast Rate” identifies Media (2.0% growth over the next 10 years), Health (1.8%), Utilities (1.2%), Education (1.0%), and Construction (.85%). Nationwide, the Education and Health Services sector was by far the fastest-growing employment sector in the latest labor statistics.
Given the growing challenge of finding able-bodied workers here in the county (and keeping them here), Vance-Sherman and McCafferty pointed out that there has been a steady decline nationwide in “labor force participation” – the number of people actually available to work. The rate peaked around 2000 and has been dropping ever since. The biggest decline has been among those aged 16 – 19. Looking at the county, McCafferty noted that, “It’s hard to keep kids here. They’re moving to bigger cities where it’s easier to find jobs. Families are also moving out and being replaced by retirees.”
The need to maintain a stable and sufficient workforce is compounded by slowing population growth. In the county, that growth has been steady but low. After tracking well above the national average until 1998 when it spiked above 3%, population growth has been tracking closer to 1%. Growing the labor force would certainly solve some problems but also put more pressure on infrastructure, housing, and the natural environment, raising concerns among some over optimal buildout and carrying capacity. Thus the importance of the County Comprehensive Plan, which is currently being updated to address these and other issues.
Income and Wages
Average annual payroll wages in the county grew a healthy 6.0%, but that did little to boost average salaries in any meaningful way: now $37,410 v. $57,025 in the U.S. Ironically, San Juan County has one of the state’s highest per capita yearly income averages, which take into account earnings from investments, retirement, and other non-salaried sources. It’s a tale of two demographics.
No income review would be complete without a look at housing, but again, there was little sign of improvement. After a four-year period (2008 – 2012) during which the percentage of households spending more than 30% of their income on housing costs dropped below 35%, that number is now in the mid-40s, exceeding both state and national averages (which have also been on the rise). Housing prices are the most visible culprit, but it’s also no secret that the “cost of living” here in the Northwest is high. Compared to a U.S. baseline of 100, the COL index for both Washington State and San Juan County is close to 130. In terms of purchasing power, it turns that $37,410 income into $29,387.
Missing from this analysis were such key metrics as tourism traffic and sales tax revenues which would help paint a broader picture of the county’s economic trajectory. And while informative, the charts and tables did little to dispel the fact that some major challenges facing San Juan County are proving impervious to quick and easy solutions. As for what’s ahead, the presenters concluded that, after 12 years of recovery since the economic turmoil of the Great Recession, we should expect “a slowing down.”
If you have questions, contact the EDC at 360-378-2906 or email Mickey von Dassow at mickey@sanjuansedc.org.
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Thank you, Matthew, for this factual, interesting, and disturbing report. I appreciate your steady participation and reporting on so many important issues facing our community and county, and your attending these important meetings; seems there are so many of them in so many areas.
The most important and overlooked thing about all of this is income disparity and what’s driving our per capita income to be so high; when the workers are suffering the opposite, and when we have to destroy forests and wetlands to build housing that most of the workers will still never have the chance to rent or own, due to this disparity and dire shortages of affordable housing.
The very thing driving all of this – a solely tourism-based economy and profiteering by the few at the expense of the many – is destroying the beautiful place that tourists come to see and experience. It is unsustainable in every way. All the “selling” of this place in the world will only worsen the problems because the focus is on profit, not preservation.