||| FROM KEN WOOD |||
We will not solve our (ferry) problems with the same thinking that created them. Perhaps we should at least consider other options than boats? What about the Airlander? THIS is how I’d like to get to the mainland! Eastsound to Bellingham in half an hour? Cargo capabilities? Seattle to the San Juans in two hours?
Obviously this is not a substitute for ferry boats capable of carrying trucks and cars but it IS an interesting possibility for passenger service. Combined with a small fleet of electric timeshare/rental cars at the Bellingham airport, this could be a long term solution to many, if not most, of our trips to the mainland.
Non-ferry alternatives — both lighter-than-air like the Airlander and wing-in-ground craft such as the Regent (https://www.regentcraft.com/), not to mention the more traditional idea of having a larger fleet of smaller boats — all should be put on the table.
However, there are real challenges along 3 fronts: (a) technical, (b) logistical, and (c) legislative. I personally believe the technical challenges are the easiest to address, as there are proof of concept and early adopters for all the options mentioned. The logistic challenges are (in my opinion) are the hardest to crack, and include the “last mile” challenge you mention, plus issues of where to place terminals with sufficient support for parking, walkability, ride-sharing, and mass transit, along with acceptable flight/water corridor approvals, and this also bleeds into the challenge regulatory compliance around item (c) — the challenges that I think require the longest lead time. Getting approvals and permits along with overcoming the pre-existing special interests (ferry lobby) will take time and money for a private firm, who also will be looking for an attractive return on investment; alternately, the service could be a public utility, reducing cost but pushing the timeline out even further.
All that said, is there interest in forming a small discussion group to flesh out more specifics for some of these ideas, and is there the appetite from our local representatives to push the idea up the governmental chain?
This is intriguing, Ken. At least worthy of serious discussion. If we have learned anything living on Orcas, it’s that stuff can happen here.
Airlander has a couple of airships built and have secured purchase commitments from a number of sources but there is no mention of the purchase price per ship on the website. That is a critical detail! I have actually considered investing in the company as a long term/long shot gamble, as I see the LTA sector doing well in a low-carbon world. It’s certainly possible that SJC could start a transportation agency that could sell bonds to fund the purchase and operation of an airship, perhaps through one of the ports. Lots of details to sort out of course. One advantage is that with the modest distances in the Salish Sea the all-electric version ought to work quite well here.
The company even mentions the Seattle/Vancouver, BC route as an example of intercity transportation potential. While I don’t give a hoot about suits traveling between urban centers, I’d much rather see fleets of silent dirigibles floating above the Salish Sea than mega billion dollar high speed rail systems that take multiple decades to complete, destroy the serenity and safety of the communities on the route the tracks run on AND won’t even stop anywhere I find useful!
I could even see a private enterprise backed by some deep-pocketed investors that could buy an airship and lease it. What would people be willing to pay for a two hour flight in a safe, quiet airship to the San Juans from Seattle? People currently pay $200 one way on Kenmore (Boeing Field to Eastsound). Let’s say you make the airship cabin uncrowded and luxe with only 50 seats. If it’s full, that’s $10k per trip each way. Say the ship flys two round trips per day to Seattle and does two passenger/cargo runs to Bellingham every day. (I’d be willing to pay $150 RT, as it costs about half that for just the ferry and fuel with a car not to mention the time and frustration). Suppose the ship were only 50% full on the Bellingham runs but could make some in cargo transport too, that’s maybe $5k per RT? So a potential gross of $50k per day.
So, yeah, this is possible.
Straight out of “The Ministry for the Future” (Spider Robinson, available at Orcas Public Library). Could it land at our airport? Here? At Bellingham’s? Sounds like a great pilot project for a serious transport problem. Bet it could be in place sooner than a new ferry, electric or otherwise.