Islanders Clarify Employment Figures

Employment analyst Reinhold Groepler, Ph.D.,  got as good as he gave at last Thursday’s economic update, sponsored by the Orcas Island Chamber of Commerce.

Groepler is a Regional Labor Economist, specializing in the Budget, Policy and Communications Division of the Labor Market Economic Analysis for the Washington State Employment Security . He described the Employment Security Department as “job brokers” and monitors of unemployment compensation.

His presentation highlighted job creation and economic growth on Orcas Island,  in San Juan County and  throughout the state’s northwest region. He spoke to an audience of about a dozen people — retailers, business and environmental consultants, new residents, community leaders and business owners  who frequently gave their input regarding both historical data and economic development.

Groepler asked rhetorically if the job growth of recent months would continue, and said, “For the U.S. economy, it looks like clear sailing.” He referred to gas and energy prices and the economic situations of Europe and China as “the big boogeymen” in the picture.

Both economic growth and recessions are “like wildfire,” he said. He described housing and construction as “the crack cocaine of the economy.”

Leading economic indicators are the credit market, unemployment claims and discretionary income, Groepler said. “Coincident economic indicators” are employment, income (from employment) and sales and consumption.

The industry employment monthly county report from January 2012 showed the overall numbers of jobs from main sectors of the economy. Overall job numbers grew from about 1,000 in 1990 to about 5,000 in January of 2008. As of January 2012, that number is about 3,300 jobs. The audience clarified that those numbers do not indicate people who hold down more than one job, nor if the jobs are full-time or part-time.

Participants also spoke to the widespread practice of “under the table” jobs which don’t show up in government data. Income data shows the spending power of the economy, reflected in sales and consumption, which is on a level with spending patterns of January 2000, Groepler’s data indicated.

The audience also challenged the figures on construction job loss, saying they appeared to be low, and on government employment, which also seemed low. Further, the unemployment data doesn’t reflect those in San Juan County who have moved to the mainland to obtain jobs. The audience also asked for data on how unemployment compensation affects employers, and noted that farm labor was not included in the data.

Groepler answered criticism regarding the timeliness of much of the figures — compiled between 2007 and 2009 — saying that the current recessions has “savaged our staff” within the Employment Security Department.

He asked for islanders’ perspectives on job creation and economic development. They brought up OPALCO’s project to provide high-speed internet access was brought up, and the development of “green jobs” regarding retro-fitting as well as manufacturing.

A discussion on whether the focus should be on growth or sustainability followed with one of the participants, Bob Connell, saying “Exponential growth can’t continue forever.” He stated that Orcas Island/San Juan County would be an excellent location to experiment with a sustainability model, whereas it would be much more difficult to implement in an urban county like King County.

“There’s a new approach to how things can happen on the island; a lot of the 20-somethings on the island are an example of those who are looking at the economy, who live their lives and work at a model different than the traditional ones based on construction or tourism, etc.”

Groepler’s March 8 power point presentation may be downloaded HERE.

Groepler welcomes input from islanders at rgroepler@esd.wa.gov.