— from Michael Riordan —
Thanks to a vigorous response to the coronavirus outbreak by the county health department led by Public Health Officer Frank James, M.D., San Juan County has thus far been spared the worst effects of the pandemic sweeping through the state and nation. But the anticipated influx of tourists coming to our islands this summer may undermine that success and will likely increase our risks substantially.
On May 19 the County passed the thousand mark for Covid-19 testing but had registered only 15 positive cases — and absolutely no deaths. That’s a “positivity rating” of just 1.5 percent, on par with South Korea. (For Orcas Island, this number is slightly higher, about 1.8 percent.) For comparison, Washington state had a positivity rating of 6.7 percent and the entire United States a woeful 12 percent as of May 22.
Why does this matter? And why are we doing so well?
Low positivity ratings indicate high levels of testing — in our case, about one of every 16 year-round county residents. It also helps when public-health officials quickly track down and confine infected individuals and their close contacts, to limit as best as possible any further spread of the disease. That is what happened in South Korea.
But it’s also likely that some actual Covid-19 cases were overlooked in the early testing — for example, symptomatic individuals under age 65. This would mean that the 15 confirmed cases may be an undercount.
After a slow start in March, when testing supplies were scarce and testing-lab access difficult, county public-health officials have been testing a lot of “asymptomatic essential workers” in addition to people with flu-like symptoms. According to Dr. James, such individuals could be unduly and unwittingly exposed — for example, health-care workers, first responders, grocery clerks, pharmacy employees and ferry workers.
“Covid-19 testing is certainly making a big difference, together with early case identification and isolation of infected individuals,” Dr. James told me. This aggressive testing program has helped identify infected individuals rapidly — before they have much chance to expose others — keeping case counts down. That knowledge guides subsequent contact-tracing activities, which can therefore be kept manageable.
The high number of negative test results hereabouts suggests that less than 1 percent of islanders have been infected. For comparison, Skagit County has recently been seeing Covid-19 infection rates of 3 to 4 percent in its testing program. But our success rate has an unfortunate down side: over 99 percent of island residents remain vulnerable.
The success of the county effort has been due in part to the limited number of new people coming on island since late March, when Governor Inslee’s “Stay Home — Stay Healthy” order went into effect. Apart from a “spike” of four positive cases on one day in early April, at most two cases per day have been recorded, and only one in the last 35 days. At that level, the all-important follow-up activities of contact tracing, isolation and disease surveillance have been kept manageable with the limited public-health staff.
In addition to about 16,750 year-round county residents, there are a number of second homeowners who have come to the islands since March to shelter in place. On Saturday, March 28, for example, an unusually large number of vehicles came to Orcas Island on morning ferries from Anacortes. Such in-migration would increase the effective county population and lower the fraction testing positive.
“It appears that the vast majority of second homes in the islands are currently occupied by their owners,” said County Emergency Manager Brendan Cowan in a May 22 press release. While that may be an exaggeration, we can reliably guess that perhaps half of the county’s second homes have been occupied by off-islanders sheltering here (which would explain all the strange faces being seen at Island Market). That would bring the effective county population to 22,900 and lower our fraction of positive cases to 1 in 1527, compared with 1 in 365 statewide.
One such couple I know who live in the Seattle area came here bringing sufficient food and supplies to self-quarantine for two weeks. We can expect that other, similar second homeowners feel a strong connection to Orcas Island; they are valuable members of the community, despite having their primary addresses on the mainland. This is the case for the couple I mentioned above. Orcas is indeed their second home.
But unfortunately there are others for whom second homeownership is mainly a commercial enterprise. Thanks to Airbnb and VRBO, these owners can market short- term, transient accommodations here for hundreds of dollars a night and earn substantial profits. According to the Vacation Rental Working Group, there are now 1038 permitted short-term rental properties in the county — 469 of them on Orcas Island, about half owned by off-islanders. These owners and the tourists they attract care much less about the Orcas community.
The public-health activities of testing, contact tracing, and isolation will become far more complex and difficult as tourists arrive, some of them likely carrying the virus. If diagnosed, any such infected individuals will not have residences here where they can be quarantined. And an asymptomatic tourist could arrive, infect islanders, and be long gone before anyone here experiences symptoms.
This is a serious concern that needs to be taken seriously. We risk another Covid- 19 outbreak unlike anything witnessed in late March and early April — given how vulnerable we remain and the potential deadly impact on our many aged residents.
Since tourism has become essential to the islands economy, county leaders and public-health officials now face a choice between lives and livelihoods. Perhaps they — and we as citizens — need to reassess the actual “value” of tourism here. Has tourism swollen to a level that has become unsupportable and is now putting islanders at undue added risk? And are its economic contributions worth that risk?
I submit that we initially need to take a long, hard look at the short-term rental properties, especially those owned and operated by off-islanders, for which 90 percent of the gross income leaves the county.
This summer may give us a valuable glimpse of our coronavirus future.
Michael Riordan writes about science, technology and public policy from his home in Eastsound.
Michael, what is your definition of “tourist”? I don’t think we show our best selves when we demonize people who come here from the mainland. And, why would someone who has been following the Govenor’s directives need to isolate for 14 days when they arrive? Where is the science in that? We had family visit over the weekend…..they had been staying home, drove from their home to the ferry, stayed in their car and came straight to our house. A risk for us? Perhaps. A risk for the community? Not much. We are both part of the “at risk” population and try to stay safe by wearing masks and social distancing when we go out. But, life has never been without risks and I would rather risk COVID than go without seeing family. The odds are good that even if I should contract COVID I would not be hospitalized or die. We all need to educate ourselves, use our best judgement to make our decisions and not judge others who choose another path.
Both Michael’s and Bonnie’s comments tell us there is a range of reasons folks come to our community. Folks come here to visit family/friends, to live here year round, to spend a weekend getaway once a year or once in a lifetime, to earn a living, to spend a month every year, to live in their second home.
What I don’t want to assume is that there is some underlying dimension of “caring about our community”, or “caring about public health” that correlate with perfectly or even strongly with these different reasons. I’m sure there’s some relationship but I know folks in each of these groups who care deeply about our community and about public health and some who don’t care as much.
Let’s move beyond figuring out ways to constrain access to our community using “the reasons why we’re here” to do so. Let’s focus on how to communicate in more compelling ways — with each other and all of those who would come here — about what we each of us needs to do to take care of our community and promote public health.
Appreciate the thoughtful replies to a less than thoughtful opinion piece. Appreciate the right of everyone (or nearly everyone) to have their voice heard, but using this crisis as a means to further political or personal agendas is a problem on our island of late. While those opposed to vacation rentals or a tourist based economy may have legitimate concerns, tying those concerns to the fear of outsiders at this time reeks of privilege, self interest and mild xenophobia.
My observations are that some of our most outspoken residents on the issue are those who moved here with resources to get away from or retire from their previous lives and then work hard to defend their own vision of what their little bubble should be. Meanwhile, those who are truly from here continue to try to carve out a living amidst the rising property values created to a large extent by folks like Mr. Riordan moving to the island. Singling out tourists is hypocritical at best.
The fact that our island has become a retirement and wealth preservation (low property taxes and no state income tax) for well off white folks of extreme privilege and high expectations is just as much at the root of current challenges.
I don’t disagree with all of the points contained in this opinion piece, but I do think the author is guilty of not taking a hard look at his own role in his perceived gripes.
What I’m hearing, in part, is that some residents feel that Phase 1 and Phase 2 restrictions are too extreme and that we should allow individual residents, not the Health Department, determine who should come to the Islands. Many people are angry. They want the state and the county to lift current restrictions so they can go back to work and a normal life. I understand.
But I don’t believe that the decisions that have been implemented to protect us by our government have a “political” agenda. To date, our Health Department’s actions are focused exclusively on protecting the most vulnerable residents in our community. To turn our backs on those residents would be an unforgiveable act of self-centeredness.
The San Juan County Health Officer’s order “prohibits non-essential travel to the San Juan Islands through the end of Phase 2. The order prohibits day trips by visitors, transient accommodations, camping, access to playgrounds, and overnight moorage.”
Hence, the county, not the author of this article, has prohibited day trips by visitors and the rental of transient accommodations through Phase 2. The county isn’t interested in distinguishing between tourists and family members. They are asking all visitors to stay at home. Including my mainland family members. My brother and his wife were turned away when they were mooring their live aboard boat.
Remember, San Juan County is hardly the only county in our state that is experiencing major changes in demographics or property values due to a influx of retirees or new residents. It’s okay to feel frustration. But it’s not okay to take it out on our neighbors.
I think this is a public health issue and Michael’s article is a good articulation of the issues. We are still under a ban on nonessential travel and required social distancing ban because that is what epidemiologists think is best. I don’t consider that to be because of politics. We do have a vulnerable population here
and lack adequate health resources. We need to do what we can to keep this virus contained. The other day Bonnie Henry, BC health minister, said there has never been a pandemic without a second wave. I hope we get lucky this time.
What I’m hearing, in part, is that some residents feel that Phase 1 and Phase 2 restrictions are too extreme and that we should allow individual residents, not the Health Department, to determine who should come to the Islands. Other people are angry. They want the state and the county to lift current restrictions so they can go back to work and a normal life.
But I don’t believe that the decisions that have been implemented to protect us by our government have a “political” agenda. To date, our Health Department’s actions are focused exclusively on protecting the most vulnerable residents in our community. To turn our backs on these residents would be an unforgiveable act of self-centeredness.
The San Juan County Health Officer’s order “prohibits non-essential travel to the San Juan Islands through the end of Phase 2. The order prohibits day trips by visitors, transient accommodations, camping, access to playgrounds, and overnight moorage.”
The Health Officer isn’t interested in distinguishing between tourists and family members. They are asking all visitors to stay at home. Including my mainland family members. My brother and his wife were turned away from the harbor a couple of weeks ago.
Remember, San Juan County is hardly the only county in our state that is experiencing major changes in demographics or property values due to a influx of retirees or new residents. It’s okay to feel frustration with our circumstances. But it’s not okay to take it out on our neighbors.
…and transient lodging is still banned and will be for the foreseeable future. If any type of short term rental were to become
legal it should be bed and breakfasts, small hotels and resorts where
cleaning and sanitizing units could be strictly controlled.
Excellent and enlightening discussion. Keep it up! Very enjoyable to see people think and struggle with difficult decisions.
My wife and I are two recent arrivals. We have been on Orcas for about two and a half years. We are older, white and privileged (none by choice) and choose Orcas as our retirement home after a couple years of search. We moved from Naples Florida, another town totally supported by tourism and home construction, after 50 years there. We bring an interesting perspective.
The similarities of the dilemmas impacting both communities are instructive. Naples was a small village when I moved there. 50 years later the population had more than quadrupled and it became a haven for the wealthy. 90% of the students I taught were from the homes of millionaires and billionaires. Real estate prices became astronomical, the roads horribly crowded. Corruption at the county level led to numerous felony convictions. It was sad to see the destruction of the environment, the desperate search for fresh water that poorly planned growth brought. And yes tourism was largely responsible, but aggravated by incompetent planning.
However, it is clear to me that Orcas would not exist without a vibrant tourist industry. It appears there are traditionally three legs to the Orcas economic stool, tourism, home construction and farming. From what I see, farming will be a constant struggle and is unlikely to be a strong economic support. Construction looks to continue unstopped, and tourism is the lifeblood of the island, bringing those who will build those retirement or second homes and those who will leave behind only their cash. While those opposed to vacation rentals or a tourist based economy may have legitimate concerns I believe we must support the restaurants and tourist establishments most impacted by the current situation. Please take no long-term action that will cripple that industry.
Without a vibrant tourist industry hundreds of residents on this island would be without a job, the building industry would eventually shrivel and we would become an island of the retired, bringing few young people to revitalize our community. Let us focus slight longer term. It is likely that within a year many of these problems become non-issues. Yes, restrict vacation rentals, discourage visits for the time, require masks, educate everyone on our lack of medical facilities, but please do not blame tourism in general for our current predicament or restrict it in a way to have a long-term impact.
Thanks, Michael for writing this thoughtful article. The only exception I take is a generalization that (commercial) real estate owners and tourists “care much less about pur community.” How can we know that?
Without factoring in anything about the possible seasonal behavior of COVID-19, it’s an arithmetical certainty that doubling or quadrupling our population from outside communities will bring new cases. The “tourist controversy” has been with us for some time and it’s certainly appropriate to discuss again with this grave pandemic upon us.
And back to the issue of caring for our community, I notice when speaking to friends that it’s not universally understood that mask-wearing is for the protection of **those around you**, not for one’s personal protection. I would like to see enforcement of mask-wearing to that end. I heard an analogy to drunk-driving last night and believe that is apt.
If anyone is truly having trouble finding a mask (try Ray’s or Food Co-op), please email me and I will make one for you: earthtosue@gmail.com.
Be kind! Be safe!
“Orcas would not exist without a vibrant tourist industry”…..hmmmmm. I think Orcas would be just fine with a minimal tourist industry.
“While that may be an exaggeration, we can reliably guess that perhaps half of the county’s second homes have been occupied by off-islanders sheltering here (which would explain all the strange faces being seen at Island Market). That would bring the effective county population to 22,900 and lower our fraction of positive cases to 1 in 1527, compared with 1 in 365 statewide.”
Not true. Cases are recorded in the county of your primary residence not where you contract the virus. If someone comes here from Seattle and gets tested positive here, their case will be recored in King County not SJC.
Robert Demarest’s comparison of Orcas Island with Naples, Florida, is interesting, as is his metaphor of a three-legged stool for the islands economy. But I don’t think the third leg is farming. It is retail/services, which will fluctuate substantially with the seasons, peaking in summer due to the tourist influx and effective doubling of our population.
John and I moved from Colorado communities two some years ago. We are full time Orcas residents and love it! Our previous communities faced many of the same issues orcas faces, such as heavy tourism, a shortage of long term, affordable housing, increasing housing prices and all that that brings with it. From our experiences, air b&b influx by out of state investors simply exasperated the problems. Orcas is a wonderful community. I am so sorry to those who have so contributed to this community and have suffered a serious blow through this pandemic. Many will not recover and will be sorely missed. My partner is immune compromised and will not make it if exposed to the virus. Thanks to everyone for wearing masks responsibly. This challenging time is also however a time of opportunity and a time when we can perhaps make changes for the better. I am involved with an exceptional group of individuals looking into the possibilities of sea and kelp farming as a new and viable industry for our islands. It cleans our waters, provides a most nutritious food source which is sustainable and low impact. This is but one of the many efforts which are island residents are undertaking to solve problems and forge a healthy future for our islands. As I see it, tourism is a healthy and necessary component of our economy, however it does need to be kept in check or it will go the way of so many communities which have suffered the effects. We absolutely need affordable, long term housing as it promotes a healthy and diverse community. There are many island organizations successfully working on this issue. Funds were recently appropriated toward increased farming promoting local agriculture and the ability for us to sustain ourselves by increased local food production. There are real solutions to the problems Orcas is facing. Let’s remain diligent in our efforts to continue to promote a sustainable community that cares for it’s own and find solutions to these problems because ….
you have to be more careful with an island♥️
It has been an interesting but disturbing week since I first posted this guest column. And I appreciate the diversity of thoughtful comments it elicited — some of which I will reply to here.
We are indeed fortunate to live here during these exceedingly difficult times, the likes of which have not been witnessed since 1968 and possibly not since the 1930s. Despite a population that is more than a third over age 65, we have not yet witnessed a single death from the Covid-19 disease. That’s truly remarkable. It boggles my statistical mind. Ninety percent of the deaths statewide have been people over 60!
We have our Health Department and County Health Officer Frank James to thank for this achievement, mainly for their assiduous testing regime and rapid follow-up activities of contact-tracing and isolation. But the Orcas and SJC communities also deserve a portion of the credit and gratitude. As I wrote in a previous Northwest Citizen article (that was linked to by Orcas Issues), the concern and care being shown by islanders has also been remarkable, perhaps because so many of us are at risk of possible death:
https://nwcitizen.com/entry/the-testing-of-three-northwest-counties
Our community cohesion is a good part of the reason for our success. We are a REAL Community (capital C), unlike the cities and towns from which many off-islanders have been coming and will be coming this summer. We consciously take care for one another — like the couple I mentioned who quarantined for two weeks after coming back here.
Some people (including at least two of the commenters) still don’t realize the precarious condition in which we find ourselves. With less than 1 percent virus exposure, and no vaccine in sight until late 2020 at the earliest, we are FAR, FAR AWAY from the 60-80 percent needed to achieve herd immunity to the virus, according to the epidemiologists I read. We are like dry tinder. It would take only one infected but asymptomatic off-islander to ignite a brush fire here that might be difficult to extinguish. The example of the March 10 Skagit Valley Chorale rehearsal, in which one person infected 52 of the other 60 singers present (most of them over age 65) is hauntingly relevant here.
Thus we need to be exceedingly careful as tourists and other islanders come here over the summer. This is not to “demonize” them, as one commenter incorrectly put it. We just have to take special care that they do not unwittingly communicate the virus to islanders. And as Greg Oaksen wrote, the established inns, hotels, and B&Bs are much better positioned than all the individual Airbnbs and VRBOs to do so, for they can be much more easily monitored by the health department.
And let’s face it, the county “tourist industry” is going to take a big hit this summer, no matter what happens. I, for one, would hate to see some of our long-standing and honorable inns, B&B’s and restaurants go under because of it. If there’s a way they can “safely” reopen and do at least some level of business, I’d enthusiastically support it.
As Sue Bauer said, “You have to be more careful with an island.”