— from Michael Riordan —

The most troublesome aspect of the County’s application to move to Phase 3 of Governor Inslee’s Safe Start program was the proposal to increase restaurant occupancy levels from 50 to 75 percent. Scientific research increasingly points to inhalation of virus- laden indoor air in confined spaces to be the leading cause of coronavirus transmission and Covid-19 infection. Going to 75 percent restaurant occupancy would only enhance that infection process.

For conclusive evidence of this transmission mode, we need look no further than the March 10 Skagit Valley Chorale rehearsal, in which one choir member infected 52 others — out of 60 present — two of whom died from the disease. The only plausible explanation is that this member emitted tiny airborne droplets called “aerosols” during singing that lingered in the room air for over an hour, carrying the virus to the others.

As Professor Michael Osterholm, Director of University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy recently stated on National Public Radio’s (appropriately named) program, Fresh Air:

“Right now, we have to understand that the single greatest risk factor we have for transmitting this virus is largely indoor air, where we’re in large crowds, where we are sharing that air with people right around us.”

Other epidemiologists and public-health experts increasingly agree. According to an article in last Sunday’s New York Times, 239 scientists have sent an open letter to the World Health Organization stating that airborne transmission via microscopic aerosol particles emitted during normal speaking is a major factor in coronavirus transmission — rivaling or outweighing that from larger droplets due to coughing or sneezing.

Breathing virus-laden air in prematurely reopened bars and restaurants has been implicated as a major factor in the resurgence of Covid-19 cases throughout the South and West — for example, in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas, which had witnessed restaurant occupancy levels increase back up to 40 to 60 percent (see graph). Governors of these states have had to clamp down and order closures of these establishments in dire
attempts to halt or at least slow the galloping community spreading that has erupted.

Therefore expanding restaurant occupancy to 75 percent of capacity in the County makes little sense — except to increase the number of diners that can be accommodated and the income thereby generated. It is obviously impossible to wear a mask while eating or drinking. So diners are inevitably exposed to the exhalations of others — including from mainlanders much more likely to be infected — for an hour or so. As restaurants expand from 50 to 75 percent occupancy, noise levels will increase substantially; diners would have to speak ever more loudly to be heard over the growing din. And according to recent scientific research, aerosol and virus emissions increase in direct proportion to speech loudness.

Restaurant servers and other employees can protect themselves by wearing high-quality masks that filter out micron-scale aerosol particles (one micron is a thousandth of a millimeter), such as the N95 masks commonly used by hospital workers. Ordinary cloth masks will not suffice. But hapless customers will have neither option unless they don’t eat or drink.

These problems will be exacerbated this summer by the fact that a large fraction of the customers — probably a majority, as vulnerable islanders avoid local eateries — will be from the mainland, where the Covid-19 infection rates are much greater. I have tried to patronize some of my favorite Eastsound restaurants during the past two months, but only by takeout orders that I can pick up and then quickly depart, always wearing a
mask indoors. It’s an approach I heartily recommend to my fellow islanders.

If our County Commissioners truly care about the welfare of our citizens, a third of whom are over 65 (like me) and therefore at heightened risk of death from coronavirus infection, they will withdraw their ill-considered request to increase restaurant occupancy to 75 percent — now on hold thanks to Governor Inslee — and instead maintain it at 50 percent for the rest of the summer.

And if the Commissioners want to do something to help our restaurants without endangering employees, islanders and tourists, they can enact temporary measures to enable or encourage outdoor seating, where the risks of inhaling the virus are at least 10 times lower. New York City, for example, has closed off streets in its restaurant districts.

While that may be difficult for the islands, surely we can make use of sidewalks and open plazas like the one on Main Street in front of the (recently closed) Jillery. And a lot of Eastsound restaurants have existing outdoor seating — or parking lots that can be adapted for such usage. They should be used to the fullest!

Eastsound resident Michael Riordan writes about science, technology and public policy.

References and Links

  1. “Local choir suffers devastating losses,” goSkagit.com (March 30, 2020).
  2. Fresh Air, with Terry Gross, “Amid Confusion about Reopening, an Expert Explains How to Assess COVID-19 Risk, National Public Radio (June 17, 2020).
  3. Apoorva Mandavilli, “239 Experts with One Big Claim: The Coronavirus is Airborne,” New York Times (July 5, 2020).
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