— from Michael Riordan —
The most troublesome aspect of the County’s application to move to Phase 3 of Governor Inslee’s Safe Start program was the proposal to increase restaurant occupancy levels from 50 to 75 percent. Scientific research increasingly points to inhalation of virus- laden indoor air in confined spaces to be the leading cause of coronavirus transmission and Covid-19 infection. Going to 75 percent restaurant occupancy would only enhance that infection process.
For conclusive evidence of this transmission mode, we need look no further than the March 10 Skagit Valley Chorale rehearsal, in which one choir member infected 52 others — out of 60 present — two of whom died from the disease. The only plausible explanation is that this member emitted tiny airborne droplets called “aerosols” during singing that lingered in the room air for over an hour, carrying the virus to the others.
As Professor Michael Osterholm, Director of University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy recently stated on National Public Radio’s (appropriately named) program, Fresh Air:
“Right now, we have to understand that the single greatest risk factor we have for transmitting this virus is largely indoor air, where we’re in large crowds, where we are sharing that air with people right around us.”
Other epidemiologists and public-health experts increasingly agree. According to an article in last Sunday’s New York Times, 239 scientists have sent an open letter to the World Health Organization stating that airborne transmission via microscopic aerosol particles emitted during normal speaking is a major factor in coronavirus transmission — rivaling or outweighing that from larger droplets due to coughing or sneezing.
Breathing virus-laden air in prematurely reopened bars and restaurants has been implicated as a major factor in the resurgence of Covid-19 cases throughout the South and West — for example, in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas, which had witnessed restaurant occupancy levels increase back up to 40 to 60 percent (see graph). Governors of these states have had to clamp down and order closures of these establishments in dire
attempts to halt or at least slow the galloping community spreading that has erupted.
Therefore expanding restaurant occupancy to 75 percent of capacity in the County makes little sense — except to increase the number of diners that can be accommodated and the income thereby generated. It is obviously impossible to wear a mask while eating or drinking. So diners are inevitably exposed to the exhalations of others — including from mainlanders much more likely to be infected — for an hour or so. As restaurants expand from 50 to 75 percent occupancy, noise levels will increase substantially; diners would have to speak ever more loudly to be heard over the growing din. And according to recent scientific research, aerosol and virus emissions increase in direct proportion to speech loudness.
Restaurant servers and other employees can protect themselves by wearing high-quality masks that filter out micron-scale aerosol particles (one micron is a thousandth of a millimeter), such as the N95 masks commonly used by hospital workers. Ordinary cloth masks will not suffice. But hapless customers will have neither option unless they don’t eat or drink.
These problems will be exacerbated this summer by the fact that a large fraction of the customers — probably a majority, as vulnerable islanders avoid local eateries — will be from the mainland, where the Covid-19 infection rates are much greater. I have tried to patronize some of my favorite Eastsound restaurants during the past two months, but only by takeout orders that I can pick up and then quickly depart, always wearing a
mask indoors. It’s an approach I heartily recommend to my fellow islanders.
If our County Commissioners truly care about the welfare of our citizens, a third of whom are over 65 (like me) and therefore at heightened risk of death from coronavirus infection, they will withdraw their ill-considered request to increase restaurant occupancy to 75 percent — now on hold thanks to Governor Inslee — and instead maintain it at 50 percent for the rest of the summer.
And if the Commissioners want to do something to help our restaurants without endangering employees, islanders and tourists, they can enact temporary measures to enable or encourage outdoor seating, where the risks of inhaling the virus are at least 10 times lower. New York City, for example, has closed off streets in its restaurant districts.
While that may be difficult for the islands, surely we can make use of sidewalks and open plazas like the one on Main Street in front of the (recently closed) Jillery. And a lot of Eastsound restaurants have existing outdoor seating — or parking lots that can be adapted for such usage. They should be used to the fullest!
Eastsound resident Michael Riordan writes about science, technology and public policy.
References and Links
- “Local choir suffers devastating losses,” goSkagit.com (March 30, 2020).
- Fresh Air, with Terry Gross, “Amid Confusion about Reopening, an Expert Explains How to Assess COVID-19 Risk, National Public Radio (June 17, 2020).
- Apoorva Mandavilli, “239 Experts with One Big Claim: The Coronavirus is Airborne,” New York Times (July 5, 2020).
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Excellent opinion, Michael. And it is not really an opinion.
Important point, Michael. Air borne infection seems to be approaching the status of factual, not conjecture. Why would the county take a risk like higher occupancy? Economic motivation, sure, but to this mind, it seems so utterly not worth the risk. I hope the commissioners are listening.
There is no “now” to it. This thing has been airborne since day one in Wuhan. This isn’t news. It’s just news that 239 names have stepped up.
And, what will happen? You guessed it. Same deal.
However, the reality of airborne transmission is surely of the utmost importance, in terms of letting people read it over and over. Perhaps, even discuss it. Could mean their health.
And those 239 names were sent by letter to an organization our joke in Washington is busy “officially” disconnecting the US with. Why…well,we know why.
An aside..I once sang with the SV Chorale and still know a few folks in it. I assure you, the tragedy continues to permeate the community.
Haven’t we known for many months that the virus is airborne? Isn’t that why we’re all wearing masks and keeping distance? I think the problem is that a large number of people are simply not taking the threat seriously. And we’ll all suffer.
Michael, your article is based on both common sense and scientific data. We are seeing so many states face upticks in the incidence of the virus because they are opening too soon. Washington state is continuing to experience more cases and more deaths, and it is obvious that some of the tourists who travel here this summer will be bringing the virus with them. To put them in closer proximity to others, which will be the case if we go to 75% capacity in restaurants, only exacerbates the problem. Let’s hope that common sense and science win the day.
Please read the article again, Peg, this time carefully. Ordinary cloth masks will not suffice with microscopic aerosol droplets. It’s almost like air flowing thru a screen door.
Or, for an even better analogy, it’s like rain blowing through a screen door.
WQuestions about the bug;
Please weigh in on these should you hagve answers as these are open questions.
1. I have read that approximately forty percent of all COVID cases are ‘asymptomatic” If this is the case and deaths plummet or are leveling off then the ‘spike” is largely being caused by ‘asymptomatic” individuals. therefore it is logical to wonder whether or not these individuals are contagious of an ‘asymptomatic” version of COVID.
2. Some of us were sick in the fall before the lockdown, etc. Does this mean we had COVID and recovered?
3. Is the ‘asymptomatic” test different than the standard version that is being pushed and has a high number of false p[ositives? Atre they designed to test for ‘different” antigens?
4 Are we actually dealing with two or more different bugs here?
Michael, or anyone, if you know I am particularly curious about the testing. Is it viable or worthwhile?
thank you
It has been indeed common knowledge that the virus is transmitted by aerosol particles. What we are now learning is that the smallest particles can travel farther and persist in the air longer than the larger droplets that have defined our six foot “social distancing” advice. The very smallest particles can persist in the atmosphere for long periods and travel long distances, as the dust from Africa that recently traveled the Atlantic to our shores indicates. Bacteria can be found wafting about in our stratosphere.
Fortunately for us, when we are outdoors, the wind blows those microdroplets about, reducing the concentration of viral particles, while sunlight and other natural processes degrade the virus over time.
Thank you, Michael, for your ongoing observations in this venue. It’s encouraging to have a real scientist weighing in, with your understanding of statistical analysis.
Joseph, we still really have no idea the extent to which asymptomatic propagation is happening, though there is evidence of some mutations in the virus. One meta-analysis I recently read showed a spread between 5% and 90%, while another study of over 5,000 positive tests in Italy indicated 74% of those who tested positive had no symptoms. This doesn’t mean that some or all in this group did not go on to develop symptoms, and that’s the devil in the details of all the research that is taking place on this topic.
There is definitely a range in variation in the accuracy of the various antibody tests currently available, not to mention the PCR tests for current infection, which can sometimes run positive-negative-positive again. Does this mean that a person was re-infected, or that the sensitivity and accuracy of the test is fuzzy? I suspect the latter. I recommend the podcast “This Week in Virology” in which virologists, epidemiologists, etc. discuss the latest research.
I just learned yesterday that Anthony Fauci deliberately avoids restaurants and only does take-out orders. What does that tell us?
New and alarming information about covid-19 is being learned all the time. Now it is thought that antibodies are not lasting, and it is not known if a person can catch the virus more than once.
It is reckless and irresponsible to rush reopening and crowding people into restaurants. We don’t have the essential workers, healthcare workers, and medical facilities to handle this. Why are we risking the lives of our front line workers,when the discussions we have should be on how to diversify our economy and protect our poor and working class citizens and help them transition to other livelihoods – including getting all the financial help for them that is possible so they don’t lose everything?