||| BY MATTHEW GILBERT, theORCASONIAN OP-ED REPORTER |||


After three years of passionate public comment, Planning Commission debate, and County Council smoke signals, the idea of setting caps on the number of vacation rental permits in San Juan County is finally on the verge of resolution as the moratorium approaches its July 13 sunset date.

There are currently four options on the table, each with different implications:

A. Compliant on July 31, 2021
The Planning Commission recommended setting countywide and by-island caps on vacation
rentals based on the number of permits that were “compliant” on July 31, 2021, whether or not
they were active. Those numbers would look like this:

  • Countywide: 650
  • Orcas: 334
  • San Juan: 229
  • Lopez: 85
  • All other islands: 2

B. Active and Compliant on July 31, 2022
The now-quaint notion of setting a permit cap considerably lower than what is currently “compliant” to those that are both compliant and active was an early battle cry from the largely Orcas-based Vacation Rental Working Group and is still officially on the table, but few believe it has any chance of success.

  • Countywide: 413
  • Orcas: 211
  • San Juan: 140
  • Lopez: 60
  • All other islands: 2

C. Originally Proposed by Council
The original number of 1,200 floated by the County Council has quietly haunted the
proceedings, described by planner Sophia Cassam at the April 5 meeting as representing a
“moderate” increase.

  • Countywide: 1,200
  • Orcas: 500
  • San Juan: approximately 500
  • Lopez: more than the current total of 130
  • All other islands: undetermined

D. Compliant at the Date of Adoption
An arguably “middle of the road” option is to set caps at the number of compliant permits at
the date the ordinance is adopted, which roughly looks like this (for now):

  • Countywide: 1042
  • Orcas: 508
  • San Juan: 392
  • Lopez: 134
  • All other islands: 8

These figures, however, are moving targets, as the final number of compliant permits will be influenced by the number of new applications that are accepted and the result of enforcement efforts on permits that are currently not compliant. According to Cassam, 200 permits have been abandoned, another 100 are in limbo because they are not compliant, and about 20 new applications are in the queue. The net result, she projects, would be 750 – 800 by the ordinance adoption date.

Department of Community Development Director David Williams noted that the County needs to establish a “legal add,” and suggested setting it at the highest recommended number as a “do not exceed”: 1,200. That figure was approved later in the meeting.

Familiar Fault Lines
The contentiousness over setting a VR cap has exposed certain ideological rifts on the Council. Members Jamie Stephens and Christine Minney have consistently leaned in favor of a more lenient cap (if one is to be set at all), while Cindy Wolf has pushed hard for a lower ceiling. In the Council’s March meeting, for example, she stated that the county’s Comprehensive Plan “requires us to use all the levers and mechanisms available to create market conditions that serve all income groups,” arguing that a continued proliferation of vacation rentals will keep upward pressure on rental and housing costs, pricing out the “missing middle.” Stephens was unconvinced, contending that any such escalations are the result of market conditions and have little impact on realistic affordability.

At the recent April meeting, Wolf noted that with 5,000 residential units on Orcas, the number of permitted VRs of 508 in “compromise” Option D would represent 10% of all homes. Given that 40% of those 5,000 units are summer-only, however, that 508 becomes 15%. And, she continued, if that 500 was to turn over every week in the high season, it would (hypothetically) fill 10 ferries. “The pain (on Orcas) started back in 2019,” she said, when the number of active and compliant rentals was barely above 200 on Orcas. Minney and Stephens were not impressed and continued to push back.

Whatever the mathematics of Wolf’s analogy, the wisdom of allowing a larger short-term rental base remains a litmus test of the county’s tolerance for tourism growth and its mixed social, economic, and environmental impacts. It may not matter on San Juan or Lopez, and so the Minney-Stephens axis will likely rule on a final number. But the Council is certainly capable of customizing the allocation, and if Orcas can still get close to what it wants whatever the overall county cap, then the three years of exhaustive debate will have been worth it.

At this point, the process is out of the public’s hands. The Council believes it has all the feedback it needs and will go straight to a public hearing on a final ordinance, to be held Tuesday, May 17, at 9:15 a.m. Of course, by that point the ordinance will likely be immune from revision, so send closing comments to vrcomments@sanjuanco.com and/or visit the 2021 Vacation Rental Code Amendment webpage.


 

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