— by Minor Lile, Orcas Issues reporter –
At the June 9 County Council meeting, Public Health Officer Dr. Frank James advised the Council that he would like to wait until at least June 24 before applying to the State to move to Phase 3 of the Safe Start re-opening process.
The County’s application to move from Phase 1 to Phase 2 was approved by the State on May 23. The guidelines for moving to the next phase require a minimum of three weeks between phases. According to these criteria, San Juan County is eligible to apply for moving to Phase 3 as soon as this Saturday, June 13.
Dr. James told the council that in his view there are just too many unknowns to move forward on June 13. He said, “On June 3 we opened up transient accommodations, it will be about three weeks from that date until we know the implications of that decision and whether it is safe to move ahead.”
He also pointed to the potential impact of the recent large-scale protests in nearby counties related to the Black Lives Matter movement and the death of George Floyd. As a result of those demonstrations, he said, “there is almost certainly going to be a significant rebound in cases (in those counties) and that’s where most of our tourists come from.” Dr. James also said that the nine Counties that have already moved forward to Phase 3 are not tourist destinations in the same way that San Juan County is.
In response to Dr. James comments, all three Councilmembers expressed varying degrees of surprise, frustration and sympathy. Just prior to the meeting, Dr. James had emailed the Council members and the Board of Health to share his thinking. But as Jamie Stephens said, receiving such an email at 8:57 for a 9 a.m. meeting felt like being blind-sided, even though the intention was to avoid doing that.
Stephens said that he was ‘very disappointed’ in Dr. James ‘thought process’ and pointed out that ‘until there is a treatment or vaccine, we are going to have risk in the community’, but that in terms of the number of positive cases and other criteria ‘nothing had changed’ since last week, “when you (Dr. James) said you were comfortable moving forward.”
Stephens also noted that some of the counties that have already moved to Phase 3 do attract tourist activity and in that regard are not so different than San Juan County. He also took issue with Dr. James’ statement that at least three weeks are necessary to assess the impact of moving to Phase 2 and allowing transient accommodations to be occupied up to 50%. He pointed out that the State’s criteria is 14 days and questioned Dr. James about the premise that 21 days are a more appropriate time frame for assessment.
Dr. James responded that the standard time frame for assessment is two transmission cycles, or 28 days, and that the time frame has been shortened to a single transmission cycle because of the significant pressures that exist to reopen the economy. He added that the balancing the health of the economy and public health is a delicate balancing act. And that in this regard, it would be detrimental to move forward too quickly and then later need to retreat to an earlier phase.
Councilmember Rick Hughes said that he was also disappointed and questioned why Dr. James had supported moving quickly to Phase 2 if that meant moving more slowly to Phase 3. He added that he considers it likely that the State would authorize moving to Phase 3 if the County were to apply on June 13, “but now we are talking about five weeks instead of three to request that step.” Hughes also summarized the safety protocols and procedures that are in place, including testing, availability of personal protective equipment, and contact tracing capacity and said that in his view the County is as well prepared as any in the State.
Hughes added that, “we are threading a needle at a time when our businesses are at great risk,” and that in his view it is appropriate to move forward as soon as possible by applying and giving the State the ability to decide if San Juan County is prepared to move ahead to Phase 3. He noted that the ferry system has recently announced that it is planning to continue with limited sailings based on the winter schedule through the summer and that this, along with the likelihood that people are going to be less inclined to travel, will restrict the amount of travel to the islands. He recommended continuing with plans for Saturday’s meeting, noting that ‘there is a lot of time between today and Saturday’, and asking Dr. James to continue to consider the overall situation.
Councilmember Bill Watson also shared his thoughts. He said that he understood Dr. James logic and had many of the same thoughts. His conclusion is that there is ‘no right answer’ and that he wanted to recognize the ‘significant individual responsibility’ that Dr. James carries, and “I want to respect that. I’m not sure what my answer would be if I were in his position.”
The process of requesting a variance to proceed from one phase to the next begins with a letter of request from the County Public Health Officer. That letter must then be approved by both the County Board of Health and the County Council before the request can proceed. The next step is to complete the formal application materials, which are then forwarded to the WA State Secretary of Health for review.
At the conclusion of the discussion, the Council agreed to continue to move forward with scheduling a joint meeting with the Board of Health for 9 a.m. on Saturday June 13, with the understanding that if there is no action to be taken at the meeting, it can be cancelled or postponed to a later date.
I am disappointed in Rick and Jamie’s emphasis on the necessity of reopening against our Health Dept. well-reasoned concerns. I guess that the rational is that a certain number of deaths are just the price we have to pay in order to keep the business community happy.
Three weeks is not all that long a time in order to assure ourselves that the close contact which many, many people have had recently does not result in an uptick in COVID cases. I, for one, trust the medical experts. Please rethink your priorities, Jamie and Rick
Remember, at least a thousand people per day are dying in the US due to COVID. This is serious stuff.
I have a question about 50% occupancy for lodgings. If I have a hotel, I assume that means I can only rent 50% of my rooms in this Phase 2. But, what does it mean for the dozens and dozens of individual vacation rental houses? These rentals bring significant numbers of tourists to the islands – what does 50% mean in that context?
Thank you Dr. James, for your thoughtful regard for our continued health on the islands. Considering the recent mass protests everywhere that will surely cause an upsurge of infection I would think it very foolish to hurry up and move to phase 3.
Dr. James frames it well during the 6/09 meeting when he states,
“To move forward carefully, and effectively I believe we need to balance the immediate health and safety of our citizens, and the economic opportunity which has definite health benefits from that activity.”
He is, in essence, saying that the economy benefits from a healthy community… he’s correct in defining this as “a healthy population is a healthy economy” issue.
Janice– if I remember my reading correctly the new ruling allows vacation rentals to open for “half” of the number of people that they are legally permitted for.
As a concerned citizen that feels following Gov. Inslee’s original Four-Phase re-opening program (with a three week safety period in between each phase) a prudent balance between health & business I thank you for abiding by the law.
As we all know, and not un-like many things in life, when it comes to legally operating within the lodging industry… it’s often the few who spoil it for the many.
Thank you Dr. James. We are seeing horrific surges in cases of COVID-19 in states that opened too early. The recent protests have certainly changed the dynamics of the situation and if our priorities are business and $ over health, safety and LIFE…it could be disastrous! I would like to see us “err on the side of caution”.
It’s distressing to see local businesses struggle. But a business can be rebuilt, a fortune lost can be made again. A life lost is forever. What’s the point in having public health officials if elected officials disregard their advice? We need county council members who place at least as much value on quality of life and life itself as they do on business and money.
The County Council and the County as a whole has garnered significant kudos up to this point in its handling of the Covid-19 threat. The Council could easily see that support evaporate if there is even a perception that they are pressuring Dr. James to reverse his reasoned opinion.
If you’re worried about it, you can stay home, but you can’t tell the rest of us to continue this ridiculous lockdown. The county council and more island residents are realizing every day that the damage being done by the lockdown far outweighs all else at this point. Do y’all not realize the negative health effects of the lockdown? Does that matter to you? Why do you only look at the virus as the only cause of negative health effects (of which, I will point out, there have been NO NEGATIVE HEALTH EFFECTS TO DATE for island residents). Stop operating on a basis of fear. We’ve been doing that now for three months. Kicking this lockdown can down the road any longer won’t change the risk. It’s there and will be there. Just like the islands will have tourists and all must live with that, the world will have the virus and all must live with that fact as well until there is a vaccine. It’s about managing your risk, and only YOU should be the one to do that – NOT the government or anybody else.
There you go again, Dale. Or whomever you are.
You clearly don’t understand much about data. The fact that there has been only one case in the County since mid-April tells us next to nothing about the impact of tourists because there have been next to NO tourists since mid-March. Except for small bursts around Mothers Day and Memorial Day weekend.
We are fortunate that our Count Health Officer has been so diligent about tracking down Covid-19 cases and contacts, and that islanders have taken so seriously the need to protect one another from this disease. Which has probably been eradicated in the islands by these efforts.
We simply cannot expect such caring from tourists, who will come from mainland areas with much greater infection rates than Orcas Island. They will come here to have a good time and get away from the contagion. And who can blame them?
But our “leaders” have to be realistic about the people who will be coming here this summer, and decide accordingly, realizing that they supposedly represent the SJC citizenry, not just the tourism industry.
Michael,
You’ve been beating the no tourist drum from the start. We get it.
You don’t like tourists and you want Orcas Island to yourself and your friends. Many (I think you?) were “shocked” at the “influx” of “tourists” over some weekends including Mother’s day and Memorial day weekends like you say. Result? Zero new cases. Are you overlooking that? Plus all the daily traffic to-from the islands from essential workers, delivery drivers, construction, residents, etc. Months of this. Zero new cases. So zero new cases since April is HIGHLY significant and should show that the islands can clearly handle more tourism. I think I do understand.
Additionally, the counties where people visit from are ALL experiencing record low levels of new infections since the peak, including King, Pierce, Snohomish, Whatcom, Skagit, etc. If you are scared of the tourists, just stay away from them. If you see a bear in the woods – just stay away from the bear! That’s your right. It’s not your right, or the government’s right, to impose draconian restrictions on EVERYONE, indefinitely, on a basis of fear that is not supported by the data. Also, island residents are spread out by design. I don’t know about you, but I don’t see island residents gathering in large groups where the virus easily spreads. We get it. Socially distanced and masks. So long as we keep that up, there is no reason to keep shunning tourism. And you know what? Most tourists get it as well as has been evidence from most of them adhering to social distancing and wearing masks inside businesses. Supporting island businesses and safe tourism, the driving factor of EVERYTHING, IS supporting the citizenry. Lockdowns only appeal to a very small subset at this point in time. That subset is becoming less and less as more and more people are starting to realize the damage from continued lockdown.
Wrong yet again, Dale. But why am I not surprised?
Here’s the first sentence of my comment before the June 2 County Council meeting, now a part of the record:
“Since it is currently one of the pillars of the San Juan County economy, I support the reopening of our tourism industry, but it must occur GRADUALLy, CAREFULLY and SAFELY.” (emphasis added)
Recent news reports indicate that Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations have been increasing in WA state since Memorial Day weekend — as well as in Oregon. Almost all of our tourists this summer will come from these two states, given the universal reluctance to climb on airplanes today. And as Dr. James stated on June 9, we can “almost certainly” expect another upsurge soon due to the Black Lives Matter protests.
You obviously don’t understand the difference between facts and fiction. Alternate facts don’t cut it on Orcas Island.
Michael,
Your first mistake is relying on your favorite news sources to advise of facts. We all know better than that, or at least I thought we all knew that. You might be better served going directly to the source for your data before making such blatantly false claims. Wow. The fact is that cases AND hospitalizations since Memorial Day are FALLING in Washington in all the counties (basically all of Washington) that I listed in my last post. doh.wa.gov… check out the covid section, you might learn something! And since the experts were so right with all their predictions throughout all of this, I guess we need one more “expert” reason to stay locked down as a result of the BLM protests because of what “could” happen. Facts not Fear, right? Check your motivations.
The moral philosopher and Stanford professor Peter Singer argues that moral decisions can only be made fairly by considering everyone’s happiness, not prioritizing one set of concerns over another’s, and weighing the costs and benefits to ALL groups
It’s not just “the interests of the business community” which have been discounted in favor of the health of older citizens, it’s also the livelihood of those who work in island jobs (wonder why SJC has 30% unemployment?) and the indirect health, mental health and other costs of depriving many people of their livelihoods.
It’s a straw man to posit that businesses can be rebuilt while lives lost cannot be regained without specifying the time horizon over which it will take to repair the economic damage to lives due to increased poverty, mental health issues, snd the myriad indirect effects of long-term unemployment. Some economists think it will take a decade to recover lost jobs and income.
Why are the lives of the elderly worth so much more than the lives of the younger citizens of Orcas? As a Boomer, I can say I think once again the Boomers cannot look beyond their innate solipsistic interests.
Bravo Rick Hughes and Jamie Stevens for facing down this mob.
Peter Singer is the Ira W. DeCamp Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University, and not a professor at Stanford.
“Why are the lives of the elderly worth so much more than the lives of the younger citizens of Orcas?”
I hadn’t looked at this issue in such a presumptive, narrowly focused, devisive manner before. If I had I might have answered by stating, “Because there’s so many more of us (elderly people) living here”. But, the issue is not about any “majority,” and it’s not about “happiness”. Dr. James is calling it right by staying the course, and remaining focused on this as a health response to a world-wide health crisis.
To further your philosophical question– “What if this was a disease that mostly affected the young? What if it disproportionately killed children and the younger people in our society… what would our local response be to that?”
COVID-19 data viewed on 6/12/20 doh.wa.gov
Tab “Cumulative Counts”
Select Option “Confirmed Cases” or “Hospitalizations” or “Deaths”
All three show rising numbers from 2/28/20 to approximately 6/4, with notes that data for Hospitalizations and Deaths both are “incomplete for most recent dates”
Seattle Times wrote on 6/11/20 that new infections in the state have risen by 20% since Memorial Day.
I too thank you Dr. James, for your thoughtful approach. Rick Hughes and Jamie Stephens are pushing for opening without regard for scientific facts at a time when it is most inappropriate to do so. To make a considered decision the county needs more time to see the effects of the phase 2 business openings and of the recent large protests. It is imprudent to hurriedly move to phase 3.
From the New York Times:
A handful of states and cities have paused or slowed reopenings.
Oregon Governor Kate Brown said she would put county applications to reopen on hold after the state reported a record daily rise in new coronavirus cases on Thursday.
“This is essentially a statewide ‘yellow light,’ it’s time to press pause for one week before any further reopening,” Brown, a Democrat, said in a statement.
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/06/13/us/13reuters-health-coronavirus-usa.html?searchResultPosition=2
In the same article:
Fauci:: Slight Coronavirus Spikes May Get Out of Control Amid U.S. Reopening
June 13, 2020, 1:01 a.m. ET / By Reuters
“The top U.S. infectious disease official on Friday cautioned that the “blips” of rising coronavirus hospitalizations being reported by some states could get out of control if robust contact tracing regimes are not put in place.
As restrictions on economic activity are lifted, the United States was bound to see increased infections, Anthony Fauci told CNN.”
Cumulative case counts in all the major counties show a PLATEAU of cases. This means new cases are DECREASING. A few rural counties are showing increases due to some outbreaks at plants and are giving you the curve you see when you “Select All Counties.” So it’s not fair to look at “All Counties” and say total new cases are rising state-wide. The opposite is true. You have a few problem areas at pinpoint locations that are being addressed. Plus we are doing way more testing now. So in the last three months you have an INCREASE in testing AND a DECREASE in new cases. What does that tell you?