Eastsound Water Users Update: Rain! Follows “Abnormal” Summer

 — by Paul Kamin, General Manager for Eastsound Water Users Association (EWUA)–

RAIN! EWUA has recorded 0.8” of rain over the last weekend of August

Tracking Summer Water Demand
August Water Use was Up. During the second half of August, water use began to climb again. Hopefully the recent rains will help moderate use again. Recent rains DO NOT mean this summer’s water challenges are over, but it is still very welcome.

Purdue Lake Water Levels
Water levels at Purdue are in reasonable shape. We has been running the treatment plant at 75% of normal in order to preserve lake levels. Lower production at Purdue has been supported by increased well production.
Groundwater levels remain within normal range.

Cliff Mass Meets with EWUA Leaders
EWUA staff and board members meet with UW meteorologist Cliff Mass prior to his recent lecture on Orcas. Dr. Mass consults with Seattle Public Utilities and other large water systems in Puget Sound.

This fall and winter are likely to be WARMER and DRIER than normal due to a major El Nino in the Pacific. How much drier is important to projecting aquifer and reservoir recharge. Mass’s projection is for 15% to 20% less precipitation than normal this fall and winter. (FOR EWUA 80% of normal precipitation would almost certainly provide adequate recharge for us. If even reasonably accurate, this is good news.)

Dr. Mass was very clear, that the summer of 2015 is NOT THE NEW NORMAL. This summer was a significant anomaly. The NW has not seen a summer like this since 1958. He stated that “next summer is exceptionally unlikely to be this warm or this dry.” The impacts of Climate Change might mean that the summers in the next century could regularly look like 2015. This summer’s unusual heat and drought ARE NOT the result of “Global Warming.”

Most climate change models are actually projecting that the Pacific Northwest will be WETTER as a result of climate change. However more of the precipitation could be expected to fall in the “rainy season” and perhaps less in the dry season. He suggested area water systems might have to expand their longer term storage capacity.

EWUA has been worried that Orcas (and Western WA in general) might become a preferred destination for “Clmate Change Refugees”. Could water scarcity in California drive people to resettle in the NW where water supplies are not so stressed? Cliff suggested that it might be more likely to expect “Agriculture Migration” instead of people. His theory is that California’s population centers will win a water war with agriculture. Potable water in cities is just worth more than irrigation water in rural areas. Who knows?

In summary, our visit with Dr. Mass suggests that the Summer Drought of 2015 is unlikely to be as severe as the multi-year drought experienced in California and other SW states. We will continue to monitor the situation, but WETTER days are likely to come again with the change of season.

Thanks to Michael Riordan and Orcas Currents for organizing Dr. Mass’ Orcas visit.