County land capacity analysis reaches first milestone

— by Matthew Gilbert, Orcas Issues reporter —

Step One in the long-awaited Land Capacity Analysis (LCA) – a fundamental piece of the Land Use Element of the Comprehensive Plan (CP) that will determine the County’s ultimate build-out potential – has just been completed. It’s called the “Gross Developable Land Inventory” (GDLI) and represents the Department of Community Development’s (DCD) months-long effort to map all 17,000 parcels in the County and assign each one a designation of “develop-ability” based on parcel type and category of development. (Go here to see the Power Point presentation.) The GDLI provides the baseline for determining build-out potential, but as emphasized (more than once) by planner Adam Zack, “this is a planning tool, not a precision instrument. It will not be used to evaluate development proposals or permit applications.”

There are currently 11 designations and the County is seeking input from property owners as to their accuracy regarding their own individual parcels. The comment period is tight – the current deadline is this Friday the 28^th – and while the DCD has made an effort to promote it, only a handful of comments have come in. The Eastsound Planning Review Committee (EPRC) has notified the County that it needs more time to evaluate designations in the Eastsound UGA, and Planning Manager Linda Kuller noted that they will be briefed, but “we’re under pressure.” She also emphasized that the department wants to “get it right.” The tension between that aspiration and various state-level GMA deadlines will be an ongoing and perhaps escalating concern as the CP update process continues to unfold.

In the meantime, the DCD is urging all County residents to review their property’s designation on their recently posted interactive map. If you feel yours is wrong, write down the parcel #, assigned category/type, your recommended change and why, and send it to compplancomments@sanjuanco.com.

Once the GDLI has been revised and completed (targeted for late August/early September), it will trigger several more steps in the LCA, most notably projections on the location and number of additional housing units and commercial square feet. “Likely” development versus “possible” development will be part of that analysis as well as “maximum” scenarios. One example raised was Blakely Island, which according to the map appears to be completely open to development. The reality, explained Zack, is that there are multiple factors that will influence those projections. The ultimate result will be a “net developable lands inventory.”

And while physical build-out is obviously a necessary element to wrestle to the ground, how that translates to “human” build-out and the islands’ “carrying capacity” are other key metrics hovering around this process. To that end, Planning Commission member Georgette Wong asked how utilities, infrastructure needs, water, and so on would be “layered in” to the analysis. “This will all be addressed in the process,” said Zack, “through another inventory (of services) and elements that address transportation, housing, and water.” Kuller added that, “We are working to match 20-year-old goals and policies to all this data. This is where public input will be critical. Where do we as a County want to go? We will likely need to update those goals and policies.”

Updated links to progress on the various Comprehensive Plan Elements are posted here. They include a 30-minute edited video of the DCD’s June 17 LCA presentation to the County Council.

Vacation Rental Update

DCD director Erika Shook gave a brief update on the status of vacation rentals. Of the approximately 1,060 permits that have been issued, about one-third are “active,” 15% are “inactive” (no intention to rent this year), and half have not responded to department outreach efforts and are technically “out of compliance.” With a new permit review and enforcement staff person, Shook believes that the status of these non-respondents will be known by the Fall.

Pete Moe asked about the trendline of applications, and Shook reported that in 2015, when Airbnb first showed up, there were about 50/yr. and now it’s somewhere north of 60. Another commissioner asked if there were single owners of multiple “rental” properties. Shook said the data didn’t show such a pattern. That doesn’t mean there isn’t one, though. According to other reports, some lower-priced properties have in fact been bought up for short-term rental purposes. This topic and others, including the recent EPRC resolution to enact a 12-month moratorium on VR permits in the Eastsound Subarea, will be the subject of a two-hour “community conversation” about vacation rentals to be held Wednesday, July 17, 6:30-8:30 p.m. at the Orcas Island public school cafeteria.

More information on SJC vacations rentals can be found here.

Surprise “Level of Service” Analysis

Toward the end of the meeting, Kuller reported that a new LOS (level of service) analysis was being completed for intersections in the Lopez and Eastsound UGAs. This was news to Chair Tim Blanchard (and the rest of the commission), who took issue with both the lack of notification and the subject of the analysis.

“The previous conclusion was that our current LOS levels are fine given modest growth projections,” he said. “This was not on any work order. Why was this done without PC input?”

Kuller responded that LOS analysis had been done for all County roads but not intersections. “The County received money to do this for Lopez and Eastsound.”

Blanchard: “It feels like we’re putting the cart before the horse. We are jumping to a LOS analysis that pre-supposes other questions have been answered but haven’t. We’ll be stuck with a number that locks us into development and drive continued urbanization of roads that will change our rural character.”

Kuller: “This is how we determine adequacy. These are our obligations under GMA: assessing existing conditions and how well things are functioning and linking improvement to possible development projects. [The results] will be included in the next discussion of the Transportation Element.”

Still not satisfied, Blanchard made a motion: “That the DCD brief the PC at the next meeting on why the new Transportation LOS analysis was done without prior notice.” After some discussion, the motion passed 4 – 2.

Contacted after the meeting, Blanchard clarified his concerns:

“LOS had already been reviewed when evaluating the adequacy of the transportation system for anticipated growth. It’s considered ‘ample’ under any growth scenario. There might need to be some improvements, such as the Prune Alley project, but no problems have been identified at any intersection. This new report might flag things that otherwise aren’t an issue such as streetlights and traffic control devices. Consultants are paid to find ways to ‘do things better,’ but that’s in the eye of the beholder. This is not an update to the CP but something much more specific.

“A UGA (urban growth area) designation doesn’t make Eastsound a city or urban. We still need to preserve our rural character. Urbanizing Eastsound will have spillover effects and threaten that rural character. It’s really a question about process. Ultimately you need citizens to have confidence in the process. And yes, we do need to get this right because it will affect the next 20 years.”

His concerns call to mind a conversation that took place in the County last May as part of a statewide project called “Road Map to Washington’s Future,” sponsored by the William D. Ruckelshaus Center, a joint effort of Washington State University and the University of Washington to facilitate collaborative public policy-making in Washington and the Pacific Northwest. The “Road Map” initiative is evaluating the to-date successes and challenges of the state’s Growth Management Act. In SJC, the GMA has been a mixed blessing, as summarized in “The County’s Future: A New Level of ‘What’s Next?’” (posted May 7, 2018). One comment in particular stood out: “[The GMA] relies on a one-size-fits-all approach that favors urban- and suburban-based solutions, not those more appropriate for a rural island community.”

The final report– both a statewide analysis as well as regional reports including San Juan County – will be available in the next couple of weeks. Go to the William D. Ruckelshaus Center project page for information and updates.