— by Minor Lile, Orcas Issues reporter —
At Tuesday’s County Council meeting, County Health Officer Dr. Frank James said that in his view it is likely that economic activity in the County will be able to return to some level of normalcy by early July. He also cautioned that while there might be a reprieve from the impact of Covid-19 for the summer, there is likely to be a second, and perhaps additional waves of infection, until a vaccine is eventually developed. Dr. James estimated that a vaccine might be available ‘by around Christmas time’ of this year.
Dr. James also said that current projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington indicate that the State of Washington is doing an excellent job of ‘flattening the curve’ of infections. Dr James said that the UW model indicates that the peak period of Covid-19 activity in Washington is likely to occur in the third week of April.
Dr. James pointed out that one effect of flattening the curve is that doing so extends the ‘impact load’ out into the future further than might otherwise be the case. This is the basis for his assessment that there will continue to be impacts on the County’s economy until at least early July. He added that being able to provide comprehensive testing is the key to really knowing when things can begin to re-open.
Dr. James applauded the actions that many in the County have taken to respond to the Stay Home, Stay Healthy order of the Governor. “The take home message”, is that ‘we have flattened the curve’. He emphasized that it is important to continue to take appropriate protective measures, and particularly to wear a mask when out in public spaces such as the grocery store. Trips to run errands should be minimized and travel to or from the mainland should be avoided unless it is essential.
He noted that the data shows that 25% to 30% of those infected by the virus show no symptoms. Wearing a mask if you are infected helps limit the spread of the virus, and wearing a mask and protective glasses if you aren’t infected means ‘there is almost no chance’ of acquiring the virus. He emphasized that the mask does not have to have an N-95 designation to be effective and added that he personally wears a cloth mask that a neighbor made for him.
Dr. James and the County Council also discussed the status of his March 25 order strictly limiting use of transient accommodations throughout the County, closing playgrounds, and taking other actions in response to the threat presented by the Covid-19 virus. The County-wide order is currently effective through April 30, with a review called for on April 6. That review is underway and Dr. James said he expects to update the order in the next day or two. It is likely that the County order will be extended until May 4 to bring it in alignment with the current end date of Governor Inslee’s statewide “Stay Home, Stay Healthy” order.
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For their own safety, employees of essential businesses should also be wearing masks, for they are exposed to fine, airborne droplets for hours on end. I was at Island Market this afternoon, and almost all employees were NOT wearing masks.
If SJ county (state, country) is locked down for three more months there won’t be anything “normal” left
Actually, as someone who examines and uses a variety of data models for a living, to me the most startling aspect of reviewing the IHME model’s current forecasts is how far off the mark the original forecasts were, although not admittedly as bad as the Ferguson model, on the basis of which this whole social experiment was put in motion. Major economic decisions are being made on the basis of models whose mortality forecasts are being revised down significantly.
I guess the epidemiologists don’t consider the deleterious effects of “nuking” the local economy to be as significant as achieving their “flat” curves. Certainly not for those of us who are well fed, well off, and able to work from home, By the way, one sure way to “flatten” the curve is to create a ridiculously overstated distribution of outcomes at the outset, then gradually adjust your assumptions until they mostly correspond with the empirical data.
As the French say, “Au pays des aveugles, les borgnes sont roi”!
I’m wondering how accurate the “state modeling” is for us out here– it’s cetainly not specific for a resort community with 2nd home owners and visitors coming out from highly infected areas, and with an average age well over 65.
SJC– 328 tests to date and 13 positives… that’s roughly one in every 25. Statistically speaking these are bad numbers in anybody’s book.