— by Matthew Gilbert, Orcas Issues reporter —
It was business as usual at the Planning Commission’s first meeting of the new year – reviewing updates of various Comp Plan elements courtesy of the tireless efforts of the Department of Community Development (DCD). Formal briefings were made on the following:
- Capital Facilities Inventory (third draft)
- Utilities Inventory (third draft)
- Housing Element (first draft, includes fourth draft of Need Assessment)
- Land Capacity Analysis (Employment Capacity Methodology)
- Shoreline Master Plan (not part of Comp Plan)
I cherry-picked a few additions largely specific to Orcas Island from the four CP documents; fortunately, most were highlighted, as the reports ranged in length from 11 pages (Land Capacity—Employment) to 169 (Capital Facilities). Anyone interested in a deeper dive can go to any one of them for the full experience. The comment deadline is January 28.
Capital Facilities: Recycling / Waste
Orcas Island’s available solid waste capacity is currently at 60%. It is estimated to drop to 52% by 2036. (Lopez and San Juan have less capacity but still plenty to cover the next 20 years.)
Recycling: “The recycling markets have experienced considerable changes since 2018 when China first reduced the materials it will accept. This has resulted in reducing the total types of materials accepted at material recovery facilities and those purchased by brokers. For materials that are still accepted or purchased, the market prices are generally depressed by comparison to pre-2018 levels. Further complicating recycling efforts is the ‘buyers’ market’ conditions that effectively reduces the contamination level allowed by buyers (cleaner recyclable material becomes necessary). . . . The County and Town of Friday Harbor will need to use every avenue to provide outreach to residents for environmentally preferable purchasing (EPP), and adopt a Contamination Reduction Outreach Plan (CROP). . . .”
Composting: “While there have been workgroups and outreach efforts in the past, the County has yet to commit to the building of a commercial composting facility. . . . Based upon statistics from the Department of Ecology, approximately 30 percent of the total waste stream is estimated to be organic waste suitable for composting. . . . As markets for recycling continue to return less revenue and make facility operations more costly, and as the County’s permanent and seasonal populations continues to grow, the County will need to work with its stakeholders to find other solutions such as commercial composting to reduce waste, control costs, and steward resources.”
Capital Facilities: Water & Waste Treatment
According to the report, the Eastsound Water Users Associate (EWUA) has 1,127 active hook-ups serving a population of 2,200, drawing water from Purdue Lake and 12 groundwater wells. Although projected “service area” growth since the EWUA’s 2009 Water System Plan has been below projections (1.1% v. 3.4%), the water system is at 99% capacity. Eastsound’s wastewater treatment capacity is at 86%. Both systems are facing capacity and level of service (LOS) issues.
Capital Facilities: Orcas Island School District
“Orcas Island School District (OISD) has been in the process of modernizing and renovating the Orcas campus and Waldron campuses since 2009. With the passage of an 11.9 mil bond in 2012, Phases I and II are now complete. Those updates include:
- New band room in the middle school
- Career technical education center
- New tech room
- Library remodel
- New cafeteria building with culinary arts room and commercial kitchen
- New courtyard between the elementary and middle school
- Two-lane area for student drop-off
“An unexpected component of the project was a flood in the elementary school, which required new flooring, drywall and paint. The work was finished in the fall of 2015. In 2017, voters approved a bond and levy for school renovation and capital projects on Orcas.” There are approximately 800 K – 12 students in the OISD.
Lengthy comments on this version of the Capital Facilities Inventory were provided by Sadie Bailey and Stephanie Buffum, executive director of Friends of the San Juans. They are available at the end of the report.
Utilities: Broadband
“As of October 2019, approximately 50 percent of the County (7,500 addresses) is located within a serviceable distance (500 feet or less) of existing fiber optic facilities. Of those, 1,800 are utilizing fiber optic service. As demand for higher bandwidth and additional improvements are made to public infrastructure, the availability of fiber optic services will continue to grow. . ..
Fiber is considered a future-proof technology that allows for massive increases in available bandwidth for generations to come. The average monthly new connection rate is 30-40 locations.”
“Fast, reliable Internet connection is increasingly important to economic development, health and safety, and daily life in San Juan County. . . . The Economic Development Element of this Comprehensive Plan states the goal of ‘support[ing] development of reliable high-speed (100 Mbps or higher, or the current standard for urban regions of the U.S., whichever is higher) broadband infrastructure that enables the creation of jobs and improved educational opportunities for islanders, and increased competitiveness for the county.’ Internet utility infrastructure comes in several forms, including LTE fixed wireless, fiber, and cable.”
Housing: Vacation Rentals
Section 5.4.4 (p. 32) of the Housing Needs Assessment (HNA), a subsection of the CP’s Housing Element, has been expanded considerably to include most of the issues that have been raised over the last number of months relating to VR impacts. For example:
“The County began a certification of compliance program for vacation rentals in 2018, sending out 1,040 notices to vacation rental permit holders in the first year. Of those, compliance certificates were received for 537 permits. Of those, only 372 permit holders indicated that they were actively utilizing their property as a vacation rental. In 2018 – 2019 the County received $98,100 in code enforcement penalties from code enforcement actions on unpermitted rentals. Code enforcement is continuing for uncertified permit holders and those that operate without permits. . . .”
“Most parcels with vacation rental permits are valued above the affordable home price. As shown in Table 5-10, $285,060 is the maximum affordable home price for a household of four earning the area median income. This is approximately $120,000 less than the median assessed property value of all parcels with buildings, which is $403,890 (Figure 5-20).
“Figure 5-21 shows that the median assessed value for properties with vacation rental permits is $483,905, which is approximately $200,000 higher than the maximum affordable home price for a household of four. More than two-thirds of the properties permitted for vacation rental are valued above the affordable home price. Considering that vacation rentals are currently permitted for 7 percent of the existing housing stock, vacation rentals are not necessarily depleting the stock of housing affordable for San Juan County residents.”
[Observation: The above data seems to assume that “affordable” housing can only be purchased, not rented.]
In addition (drawing from different sections of the report):
- The number of vacation rentals in the County has steadily increased since the year 2000 and made up 7 percent of the total housing stock in 2015.
- From 2005-2010, there were 5.5 new dwelling units created in the County for every vacation 41 rental permit issued per year. From 2011-2016, there were only 2.18 new dwelling units per vacation rental permit.
- Current trends predict 1,500 – 2,000 permitted vacation rentals in San Juan County by 2036.
- The vacation rental share of total housing can be expected to be between eight and eleven percent by 2036 given permit trends.
- The decline in new construction appears to have more influence on housing supply and availability than vacation rentals.
- San Juan County shows a lack of diversity of housing types with few multi-family units. In 2015, 84 percent of structures in the County were 1-unit detached structures, as opposed to 63 percent statewide. Only 3.4 percent of the structures in the County consist of five or 18 more units, compared to 19.5 percent statewide.
- No multi-family unit permits were issued from 2009-2015.
- Only 16 percent of the County’s total housing inventory was renter occupied in 2015 compared to 34 percent statewide.
- The majority of vacant housing units in the County are categorized by the American Community Survey (ACS) as, “For seasonal, recreational or occasional use.”
A VR compliance update is on the agenda of the County Council’s January 28 meeting. For more information, contact council@sanjuanco.com.
It seems axiomatic that a home worth close to $500,000 will not be “affordable” (in the definitions used by the feds) whether rented or purchased.
Also, using “current trends” to project VRs in the future seems unwise, given the turnover in the VR numbers due to the universal new re-registration and removals of old VR permits plus the ongoing dearth of rental housing options under our codes.
“More than two-thirds of the properties permitted for vacation rental are valued above the affordable home price.”
From the above– logic would indicate that one-third of the properties permitted for vacation rental are valued below the affordable home price.
1 in 50 homes in London is now a short-term vacation rental and the City Council is freaking out. They’re actually doing something about it.
1 in 6.5 homes on Orcas is now a vacation rental, and the current county council does not see this as a problem.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/21/tens-thousands-london-homes-deemed-long-term-vacant
Interesting to see that only 372 of 1040 (36%) of permitted VR’s are actually being used as such. Perhaps the number of permits out there is not a good indicator of the real use market? And, only 16% of the County’s total housing inventory was renter occupied in 2015 compared to 34% statewide. Perhaps the sky isn’t falling?
“Interesting to see that only 372 of 1040 (36%) of permitted VR’s are actually being used as such. Perhaps the number of permits out there is not a good indicator of the real use market?”
Yes, this is interesting, and it’s scary to many. Knowing that many of the permitted vacation rentals are not currently being rented out at a time when many feel that some parts of the county have already reached a saturation point is daunting. It makes many who live here wonder what the summers and the holidays might be like if all the vacation rental permits were suddenly put into use, or what our future might look like if the current vacation rental growth trend continues unabated.
Yes, you’re correct– the overall lack of current & correct data, (including numbers regarding both illegal, and as you pointed out “permitted VR’s”), that’s currently being used by the county is only part of the incomplete picture regarding the growth of the vacation rental industry and the negative impacts that it’s having throughout the San Juans today.
“And, only 16% of the County’s total housing inventory was renter occupied in 2015 compared to 34% statewide. Perhaps the sky isn’t falling?”
Though it’s easy to try and over-simplify such a complex issue by referring to it as “the sky is falling” the facts show that SJC currently has a housing crisis. The truth is that having “16% of the local housing inventory occupied in 2015 compared to 34% statewide” is neither a current assessment, nor is it an indicator of a healthy housing market. The current growth trend in the vacation rental industry throughout the region, including the San Juans, is continuing to have an impact on the availability of housing all across the spectrum. From low-end to high-end, from year-round rentals to the affordable (the existing) home market– the current increasing trend, and disproportionate number of vacation rentals on some islands and in certain geographic areas hosts a number of significant negative impacts not only to these affected communities… but to each of the islands by putting increased pressure on an already strained housing market.
SJC is not alone in this conundrum. There’s volumes of information available about the long-term negative impacts related to the over-proliferation of vacation rentals in small resort community’s like ours… and it’s right at your fingertips.
Clearly it’s time for the SJC County Council to take action, and to enact an immediate moratorium on new vacation rental permits until the current Comp Plan process has been finalized, the public process has been served, and new regulations have been effected.
Please sign the petition here: https://www.vacationrentalsorcas.org/
Michael, I appreciate your lengthy and thoughtful response. I understand the concerns of Islanders and while I’d like to move there full time, it is increasingly clear that I might not be welcome as many residents there seem to think the addition of any other person would ruin the place. I can only hope that some day you will be able to see the glass as half full and not half empty. For people who live in such a paradise, I would expect more optimism. Out here in “America” (as Orcasians like to call it) many of us face the same issues, but are positive about where our community is going and welcome new people and especially the diversity that Orcas sadly lacks.
One simple way to insure less growth would be to first rescind VR permits for anyone who didn’t use them in the last 2 years and thus you could get the total number possible to around 400. Step two would be to make it expensive and administratively burdensome to get any new permit-something like a 2,500 fee, a 20 page form, a 5M insurance policy, and an inspection by the fire department should do the job!
“Michael, I appreciate your lengthy and thoughtful response.”
You’re too kind. I wish I could say the same for your’s.
“I understand the concerns of Islanders…”
I’m sure.
“…it is increasingly clear that I might not be welcome as many residents there seem to think the addition of any other person would ruin the place.”
There’s nothing in this thread, or any other thread related to growth or tourism that’s ever occurred in this media outlet that would even remotely suggest this. I’ve never heard anybody express this point of view, ever. And, you havn’t either. “Disingenuous” is the word that comes to my mind.
“For people who live in such a paradise, I would expect more optimism.”
You’re incorrectly conflating “optimism” with “concern.”
“Out here in “America” (as Orcasians like to call it) many of us face the same issues, but are positive about where our community is going and welcome new people and especially the diversity that Orcas sadly lacks.”
Perhaps you would be happier staying there… I mean, with all the “new people,” and the “diversity” and all.
I grew up on a farm in SW Missouri. Then I moved to the Colorado back-county in the San Juan Mountains not far from Telluride. I’ve been here over 25 years now. I’ve been watching city people move to the country and screw it up, before selling out and moving on, all my life. I take it a bit personal when people who don’t live here, and who don’t have a clue about what’s going on here in the San Juans, like yourself, take it upon themselves to rectify the situation for the rest of us.
It might interest you to know that the recent SJC tourism study showed that not only are many of us locals concerned about the changes we see happening, but that also the vast majority of tourists don’t want to see the San Juans change either. They come here for the rural atmosphere, for the peace & quiet, and for the solitude, (you know, that which we are losing quickly).
There’s a word for it now, it’s called “solastalgia.” A generally shared feeling that our sense of place is being violated.”
This is such a great article, Matthew. Thanks so much for doing all of this homework and research. I finished my comments on the Housing element and did not realize all the other elements you named are up for comment.
When you look at the housing piece, it seems imperative that people know how near to capacity we already are, concerning water and sewer hookups! There was a water hookup moratorium back some years ago and I think we need another one – and also to know just how many of these vacation rentals are suddenly going to come online during our dryest season. I also wonder if, in an emergency such as a large scale wildfire, if we would have enough water to put it out. We can’t keep playing this roulette with a loaded barrel.